Fan Plan Championship Index for week of Oct. 16 2

DALLAS — For the second week in a row turmoil atop college football has sent playoff contenders reeling. As a result, the Fan Plan Championship Index was once again reshuffled, leaving a familiar team back at the top of the standings in the race to determine which teams will be playing for the national championship this season.

A week after two of the FPCI’s Top 5 teams were beaten, this past weekend saw four of the Top 10 FPCI teams go down, including the top two teams on a wild Friday night of action. Thanks to Clemson’s loss at Syracuse and Washington State’s loss at Cal, the Alabama Crimson Tide have vaulted all the way back to the No. 1 overall spot from last week’s No. 8 position. The Crimson Tide now have a 46.08% chance to make the national championship game, a jump of more than 38 percentage points and the largest jump of any team. Alabama is followed by SEC rival Georgia, which moved up from No. 4 to No. 2. Georgia’s 44.15% chance to make the national championship game is up more than 23 percentage points from a week ago.

No. 3 Penn State (33.00%) and No. 4 Miami (24.22%) round out the Top 4 in the projected playoff field. Ohio State (19.59%), which is chasing Penn State for Big Ten supremacy, comes in just outside of the Top 4 at No. 5 overall.

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 6 Notre Dame (19.14%). No. 7 North Carolina State (4.64%), No. 8 Michigan State (3.80%), No. 9 Clemson (1.73%), and No. 10 USC (1.13%).

WK 8 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Alabama 7-0 46.08% 22.94% $264.96
2 Georgia 7-0 44.15% 22.46% $253.86
3 Penn State 6-0 33.00% 21.54% $206.25
4 Miami (FL) 5-0 24.22% 20.86% $151.38
5 Ohio State 6-1 19.59% 22.74% $146.93
6 Notre Dame 5-1 19.14% N/A $143.55
7 North Carolina State 6-1 4.64% 19.03% $58.00
8 Michigan State 5-0 7.73% 12.76% $47.50
9 Clemson 6-1 3.08% 17.48% $21.63
10 USC 6-1 2.25% 21.35% $20.00
11 Washington State 6-1 1.17% 10.75% $20.00
12 TCU 6-0 0.88% 24.94% $20.00
13 Oklahoma 5-1 0.73% 18.20% $20.00
14 Michigan 5-1 0.54% 6.15% $20.00
14 Wisconsin 6-0 0.39% 21.61% $20.00
16 Auburn 5-2 0.39% 11.23% $20.00
16 South Carolina 5-2 0.34% 7.80% $20.00
18 Mississippi State 4-2 0.29% 5.21% $20.00
18 Oklahoma State 5-1 0.24% 20.34% $20.00
18 Washington 6-1 0.10% 20.84% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

WELCOME BACK TO THE TOP, BUT WHEN WILL THE TIDE BE TESTED?: After sitting atop the Fan Plan Championship Index for three weeks and then giving way to other contenders for a month, the Alabama Crimson Tide have returned to the No. 1 spot atop the FPCI ratings. This week’s FPCI has Alabama with a 46.08% chance to play in the national championship game, a huge jump of more than 38 percentage points from a week ago when the Tide were at No. 8 in the FPCI rankings.

There’s no doubt that Alabama has been the most steady of the dominant teams in the country this season. The average score of an Alabama game this season has been 43-10. Alabama’s closest game was a 27-19 contest against Texas A&M a couple weeks ago, but the Tide were up 24-3 early in the third quarter in College Station. Was that final result more a matter of Alabama losing focus, or was it a chink in the armor? That’s still to be determined, but last weekend the Crimson Tide shut down any thoughts of an upset when Damian Williams took the first play of the game for a 75-yard touchdown en route to a 41-9 win over Arkansas.

According to the FPCI, Alabama is heavily favored to win its remaining regular season games, most of which the Tide have a greater than 90% chance to win. The lowest remaining percentage is at Auburn in the regular season finale, but even then Alabama currently has an 81% chance to win that game. If the season unfolds the way it’s currently going, this could be a historically easy path to the SEC championship, a conference that has prided itself with having huge slates of top teams through the recent decades. Currently Alabama has only played one game against an FPCI-ranked team at the time of the game – that was Week 1 against then- No. 4 Florida State. Alabama’s FPCI average opponent rank is 67.3 and Alabama’s opponents’ combined record is 24-20. Looking forward it doesn’t get much better, as the only remaining team on the Tide’s schedule ranked in the FPCI is Auburn at No. 16. Alabama, which is ranked No. 2 in this week’s FPCI power rankings, would also be favored in a potential SEC Championship Game match-up against No. 2 Georgia, with the FPCI simulations projecting a 25-14 Alabama win in that matchup. But all of that is on paper, and as the past two weekends in college football have proven, you really don’t know what to expect until a team finds itself in the fire. But for Alabama, it seems like that may not come before December, at the earliest.

CHAOS ABOUNDS, PART 2: Two weekends ago it was two FPCI Top 5 teams that went down and caused a huge shake-up in the FPCI ratings. But that was nothing compared to this past weekend when four FPCI Top 10 teams lost, including the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams in the land. When all of the dust cleared during what was supposed to be a ho-hum weekend on the schedule, the ruins that were left made it clear that we’re no closer to defining the playoff field than we were when we started the season.

WHAT WE THINK THE WEEKEND TAUGHT US:

Clemson Tigers: Friday night’s falterings by No. 1 Clemson and No. 2 Washington State sent shockwaves through college football. Clemson had finally made its way to the No. 1 overall spot in the FPCI with a projected 50.24% chance to make the national championship game. It also had the best resume of any of the contenders with wins over three teams that were highly ranked when they faced the Tigers in Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech, all three of which the Tigers summarily dismissed. But Friday night Clemson fell to a gutsy, if only average, Syracuse team and in the process lost its quarterback to a concussion. That marked the second consecutive questionable final score, as the week before some concern centered around the Clemson offense in a pedestrian 28-14 win over Wake Forest. This isn’t the same Clemson team as last season and the Tigers’ ability to lose focus – both by the players and the play callers (see Dabo Swinney’s refusal to just pound the ball down Syracuse’s throat) – is a little concerning. However, Clemson still appears to be the class of the conference and it might take more than one loss to keep them away from the playoff field.

Washington State: Yes, the Mike Leach offense is fun to watch when it’s clicking on all cylinders. And yes, it appears Washington State has a defense that’s better than anything Pullman has seen in the Mike Leach era. But yes, it’s still the same Mike Leach system that’s too prone to lay too many eggs at crucial times to trust that the Cougars are ready to run the table and claim the Pac-12 title with just one loss. The FPCI has Washington State at No. 11 overall with a 0.89% chance to play in the national championship game, and that’s probably much more realistic than last week’s No. 2 overall ranking following its huge victory over USC. The FPCI is projecting two more losses this regular season, one against Stanford and one at Washington. It’s also possible that the wheels could come off entirely, as Washington State only has a 54% chance to beat Arizona in Tucson and a 55% chance to win at Utah, both of which could be considered tossups at the moment.

Washington: What an implosion in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Following Washington State’s Friday night loss, the Washington Huskies had its chance to take control of the Pac-12 North. But as bad as Washington State looked on Friday, Washington wasn’t any better on Saturday in its 13-7 loss at Arizona State. Washington, last season’s playoff representative from the Pac-12, is still winless in Tempe since 2001. Arizona State previously allowed 30 or more points in 11 straight games and Washington entered the game averaging 43 points per game, but failed to find the endzone until the fourth quarter, going nearly 50 minutes without scoring. It still may be Washington or bust as far as the Pac-12’s playoff chances go, especially if USC falls to Notre Dame this week. The FPCI, which has Washington at No. 18 this week and a 0.05% chance to play in the national championship game, has Washington favored to win all of its remaining regular season games, which includes a road trip to Stanford. In that game the Huskies have a 55% chance to win with a projected score of 25-23. That would likely lead to a Pac-12 Championship Game rematch against USC, which the FPCI currently has as a 26-19 Washington win.

Auburn: The fourth FPCI Top 10 team to fall was Auburn, which was stunned by LSU after going on top 20-0 and seemingly headed to another route of an SEC West foe. In its three previous games, Auburn had beaten Missouri 51-14, Mississippi State 49-10, and Ole Miss 44-23, so the 20-0 start appeared to be just more of the same. But the home-standing Tigers turned the defensive tables on Auburn, which finished with just 65 total yards in the second half. They may have also provided the blueprint for stopping Gus Malzahn’s offense, a feat only Clemson had been able to approach this season. With both Georgia and Alabama left on the schedule, along with a tricky game at Texas A&M, this playoff dark horse a week ago now can seemingly only be a spoiler. But don’t be surprised if Auburn does take down one of the two SEC giants. The Alabama game is in Auburn this season, just a few years removed from the Kick Six in Jordan-Hare. This season of chaos is going a little too smoothly atop the SEC – so smooth that it now appears the SEC could get two teams into the playoffs if the right dominos fall –which is why an Auburn upset of Georgia or Alabama seems like a heck of a pick as the regular season winds to a close.

BEST CHANCE FOR A TWO-LOSS TEAM: While it’s still a longshot that a two-loss team will advance into a four-team playoff field, the odds of that happening continue to get shorter the more the top teams continue to lose. So does a two-loss team really have a shot at making the playoffs? Possibly, and if so, Stanford seems like the odds on favor. First and foremost, the Cardinal would have to win the Pac-12 Conference. As much of a stretch as it seems when discussing a two-loss team in the playoffs, it’s pretty much a lock that any two-loss team would have to be a conference champion to even be considered, and at this time Stanford seems like the two-loss team that’s in the best position to accomplish that feat.

The Cardinal began the 2017 campaign on a sour note. After beating Rice in the season opener, Stanford fell to USC 42-24 and to San Diego State 20-17 before righting the ship. One early-season loss can be overcome, especially when it’s to a team the caliber of USC. But that slip-up against the Aztecs was a dagger for a Stanford team that knows a lot about early season losses. In 2015, Stanford lost out of the gates to Northwestern, only to reel off eight straight wins to climb up to No. 7 in the rankings. But a 38-36 home loss to Oregon ended any hopes of the Cardinal advancing to the playoffs. Instead, Stanford trounced No. 5 Iowa in the Rose Bowl, 45-16. Stanford also dropped two early-season games in 2012 against Washington and Notre Dame before rallying to finish in the Top 10. In both seasons early season setbacks seemed too much to overcome, despite those Stanford teams finishing the year as good as anyone in the country.

That could happen again this year as the Cardinal are now surging after the two early-season losses. Stanford is 5-2 and winners of four in a row. The FPCI gives Stanford a 0.64% chance to make the playoff field. Stanford’s schedule down the stretch is tough, including games against No. 11 Washington State, No. 18 Washington, and No. 6 Notre Dame. The FPCI projects Stanford to still lose two of its remaining games, but by a combined three points. Essentially the game against Washington and the game against Notre Dame, both home games, are both toss-ups. If Stanford can traverse that regular season slate successfully and then win the Pac-12 Championship Game, it would mean 10 straight wins for the Cardinal to close out the season and a conference championship. With the Pac-12 currently listed as the second strongest conference in America, it’s conceivable to believe that a 10-2 Stanford team that has won 10 straight games could get in ahead of an 11-1 team from the Big 12, especially if that team is TCU and it were to go into the Big 12 Championship Game undefeated but lose to a 2-loss or 3-loss team.

WHAT ABOUT THE AMERICAN ATHLETIC?: Not only do all of the losses by supposed playoff contenders make for exciting weekends of action, but they also help keep alive the hopes of the undefeated non-Power 5 teams still lurking. Specifically, for UCF and USF of the American Athletic Conference, with every loss by a Power 5 heavyweight comes a bigger smile and more hope.

But the FPCI doesn’t exactly see it that way. The UCF Golden Knights and USF Bulls are both ranked No. 21 in the most recent Fan Plan Championship Index and both teams even have a small shot at making the playoff field, according to the FPCI. UCF enters Week 8 with a 25.67% chance to win the conference and a 3.95% chance to make the playoff field. USF has a 21.62% chance to make win the conference and a 0.44% chance to make the playoff field. But when it comes to the national championship game, that’s when both teams fall out of the race. In the thousands of simulations run by the FPCI to determine the Week 8 ratings and projections, neither UCF or USF won any of the semifinal games when they were actually projected to reach the playoff field, giving both a 0% chance to make the national championship game in Atlanta.

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Fan Plan Championship Index for Oct. 9

DALLAS, TX – For the first time this season the Clemson Tigers are the favorites to play in the college football national championship game. The Tigers have a 50.24% chance to make the championship game, according to the Week 7 ratings of the Fan Plan Championship Index. Clemson is 6-0 at the halfway point of the season with wins over current No. 9 Auburn and No. 24 Virginia Tech already on its resume.

The FPCI rankings were sent into upheaval with the losses by last week’s third-ranked Michigan Wolverines and fifth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners over the weekend. With the Michigan loss, Penn State replaced the Wolverines as the Big Ten representative in the projected playoff field, as the Nittany Lions now have a 21.14% chance to make the national championship game and a 21.78% chance to win the Big Ten. The Oklahoma loss caused the Big 12 to tumble even further from the playoff field. The closest team from the Big 12 to the playoff field is now No. 11 TCU with a 1.17% chance to make the national championship game.

Georgia (20.69%) dropped from No. 1 to No. 4 overall, while Washington State (43.10%) moved up from No. 4 to No. 2. Georgia’s drop is being precipitated by the SEC having three teams in the Top 10 this week, including No. 8 Alabama (7.73%) and No. 9 Auburn (3.08%), along with an overall drop by the SEC in the conference rankings.

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 5 Notre Dame (19.03%). No. 6 Ohio State (17.42%), No. 7 Washington (10.08%), No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Auburn, and No. 10 Michigan State (2.25%).

WK 7 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Clemson 6-0 50.24% 22.15% $433.32
2 Washington State 6-0 43.10% 22.45% $371.74
3 Penn State 6-0 21.14% 21.78% $198.19
4 Georgia 6-0 20.69% 22.62% $193.97
5 Notre Dame 5-1 19.03% N/A $178.41
6 Ohio State 5-1 17.42% 23.25% $163.31
7 Washington 6-0 10.08% 25.87% $75.60
8 Alabama 6-0 7.73% 22.92% $77.30
9 Auburn 5-1 3.08% 17.49% $38.50
10 Michigan State 4-1 2.25% 11.84% $28.13
11 TCU 5-0 1.17% 22.08% $20.00
12 USC 5-1 0.88% 21.31% $20.00
13 Michigan 4-1 0.73% 5.45% $20.00
14 San Diego State 6-0 0.54% 24.93% $20.00
15 Georgia Tech 3-1 0.39% 10.47% $20.00
15 Wisconsin 6-0 0.39% 21.93% $20.00
17 Oklahoma 4-1 0.34% 18.04% $20.00
18 North Carolina State 5-1 0.29% 16.89% $20.00
19 Miami (FL) 4-0 0.24% 19.94% $20.00
20 Oklahoma State 4-1 0.10% 17.81% $20.00
21 Duke 4-2 0.05% 1.98% $20.00
21 Utah 4-1 0.05% 1.54% $20.00
21 Virginia Tech 5-1 0.05% 8.65% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

CONTENDERS SURGING, PRETENDERS FALLING BY THE WAYSIDE: The halfway point in the college football season gives us the first time the FPCI has indicated a team has a greater than 50% chance to make it to the national championship game. That designation is bestowed on the Clemson Tigers, which is also ranked No. 1 in the FPCI for the first time this season. Clemson enters the week with a 50.24% chance to play in the national championship game and a Fan Plan price of $433.32.

As one would expect, Week 7 also includes the fewest teams with a greater than zero percent chance to make the national championship game. This week there are just 23 teams that register in that metric, with the bottom three – Duke, Utah, and Virginia Tech – coming in at just a 0.05% chance to make the championship game.

CONFERENCE DECK SHUFFLED: For the first time this season, the SEC has fallen from the top spot in the FPCI conference rankings. Despite three teams in the Top 10, the SEC fell from No. 1 overall to No. 3. Those three SEC teams in the Top 10, however, account for all of the SEC teams with a chance to make it to the national championship game, according to the FPCI. That represents the fewest teams of any Power Five conference other than the Big 12, which also has just three teams remaining with a chance to make the national championship game.

The ACC and Pac-12 both moved up one spot in the FPCI conference rankings to No. 1 and No. 2, respectively. The ACC has six teams remaining with a chance to make the national championship game, with the No. 1 Clemson Tigers leading the way. The Pac-12 has four teams left. The Big Ten, with five teams left in the FPCI ratings, come in at No. 4 overall, with the American Athletic Conference at No. 5 and the Big 12 at No. 6.

BULLDOGS AND CRIMSON TIDE CONTINUE BATTLE FOR SEC SUPREMACY: After holding the top spot in the FPCI for two weeks, the Georgia Bulldogs fell to No. 4 after this week’s shakeup. And the Bulldogs’ advantage over their SEC counterparts also remains tenuous, with Alabama and Auburn also lurking in the FPCI Top 10. The Alabama Crimson Tide remain at No. 1 in the FPCI power rankings, a spot they have held for the entire season. Georgia comes in at No. 6 in the power rankings, while Auburn is at No. 15. In order for the Bulldogs to finish the season with a coveted playoff spot, they would have to beat Auburn in the regular season and likely Alabama as well in the SEC Championship Game.

Currently Georgia’s probability to play in the national championship game (20.69%) is considerably higher than Alabama’s 7.73%, despite the fact that Alabama is favored to win against Georgia by 8 points should they face each other in the SEC Championship Game. This is because Georgia has a key win against No. 5 Notre Dame (No. 7 power ranking) while Alabama hasn’t beaten a FPCI Top 25 team yet. Both teams will play current No. 9 Auburn in the regular season, and by that time, depending on the results, these percentages could swing drastically.

Below are the results and projected results for both Alabama and Georgia for the season. For the games not played yet, the probability to win is listed. Both teams are expected to win out. If that happens, these two teams will face each other in the SEC Championship Game, which the FPCI currently projects as an Alabama win.

Alabama Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Florida St                          W (24-7)             %

Sat, Sep 09         Fresno St                          W (41-10)           %

Sat, Sep 16         Colorado St                      W (41-23)           %

Sat, Sep 23         at Vanderbilt                   W (59-0)             %

Sat, Sep 30         Mississippi                       W (66-3)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at Texas A&M                  W (27-19)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Arkansas                           W (52-12)           99%

Sat, Oct 21         Tennessee                        W (44-6)             99%

Sat, Nov 04        LSU                                     W (40-3)             99%

Sat, Nov 11        at Mississippi St                   W (39-18)           95%

Sat, Nov 18        Mercer                              W (50-0)             99%

Sat, Nov 25        at (9) Auburn                   W (27-15)           82%

Georgia Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Appalachian St                W (31-10)           %

Sat, Sep 09         at (5) Notre Dame          W (20-19)           %

Sat, Sep 16         Samford                            W (42-14)           %

Sat, Sep 23         Mississippi St                   W (31-3)             %

Sat, Sep 30         at Tennessee                   W (41-0)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at Vanderbilt                   W (45-14)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Missouri                           W (52-9)             99%

Sat, Oct 28         at Florida                          W (34-10)           97%

Sat, Nov 04        South Carolina                W (29-3)             98%

Sat, Nov 11        at (9) Auburn                   W (19-15)           61%

Sat, Nov 18        Kentucky                           W (38-6)             99%

Sat, Nov 25        at Georgia Tech               W (29-19)           77%

WHY ARE THE IRISH SO HIGH?: The FPCI lists Notre Dame at No. 5 in this week’s ratings, much higher that the Fighting Irish are in any of the human polls this week. Because the FPCI is a projections-based metric, it looks at how the entire season is projected to play out and likes what it sees on the Notre Dame schedule for the rest of the season.

Notre Dame’s upcoming schedule includes three of its last six regular season games against FPCI Top 25 teams. That becomes five of six Top 25 teams based on the FPCI non-adjusted ratings. Further, the Fighting Irish are favored to win all of their remaining games, which would put them at 11-1 with only a one-point loss to Georgia. If that’s how the season plays out, it will be difficult to keep Notre Dame out of the Top 4, no matter what other teams are able to do the rest of the way.

Notre Dame Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Oct 21         (12) Southern Cal            W (36-27)           75%

Sat, Oct 28         (18) North Carolina St    W (42-27)           88%

Sat, Nov 04        Wake Forest                    W (38-22)           89%

Sat, Nov 11        at (16) Miami FL              W (35-30)           64%

Sat, Nov 18        Navy                                  W (44-22)           96%

Sat, Nov 25        at Stanford                       W (39-30)           75%

 

Fan Plan Championship Index for Oct. 1

DALLAS, TX The Georgia Bulldogs, fresh off of an impressive 41-0 road victory over Tennessee, strengthened its hold on the No. 1 overall spot in the Week 6 Fan Plan Championship Index. The Bulldogs improved more than 10 percentage points in their chances to make the national championship game, entering Week 6 of the season with a 42.27% chance, the highest percentage of any team thus far this season. The Bulldogs also lead all teams with a 52.59% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Clemson and Michigan remain and Nos. 2 and 3 this week, while a newcomer enters the playoff forecast at the No. 4 spot. Washington State’s upset win over USC vaulted the Cougars into the fourth spot with a 19.18% chance to make the championship game, moving Oklahoma to the No. 5 spot and outside of the playoff race were it to end today.

A number of non-Power 5 teams are also lurking in the FPCI, with Notre Dame holding the highest spot among those clubs at No. 7 with an 11.74% chance to play in the national championship game. Also in the rankings this week from outside the Power 5 conferences are No. 14 Central Florida (1.61%), No. 20 San Diego State (0.29%), and Nos. 24 South Florida and Navy (both 0.10%).

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 6 Penn State (16.63%). No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 8 Alabama (10.08%), No. 9 Ohio State (9.00%), and No. 10 TCU (8.61%).

WK 6 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Georgia 5-0 42.27% 22.41% $364.58
2 Clemson 5-0 25.49% 22.42% $238.97
3 Michigan 4-0 20.55% 12.41% $192.66
4 Washington State 5-0 19.18% 15.70% $179.81
5 Oklahoma 4-0 18.69% 25.43% $175.22
6 Penn State 5-0 16.63% 21.19% $155.91
7 Notre Dame 4-1 11.74% N/A $88.05
8 Alabama 5-0 10.08% 23.24% $75.60
9 Ohio State 4-1 9.00% 22.56% $90.00
10 TCU 4-0 8.61% 23.46% $86.10
11 Wisconsin 4-0 4.65% 20.74% $58.13
12 Auburn 4-1 3.77% 17.25% $47.13
13 Washington 5-0 1.96% 25.20% $24.50
14 Central Florida 3-0 1.61% 25.06% $20.13
15 Georgia Tech 3-1 1.22% 12.23% $20.00
16 USC 4-1 0.88% 22.93% $20.00
17 Maryland 3-1 0.83% 4.18% $20.00
18 Oklahoma State 4-1 0.73% 19.56% $20.00
19 Michigan State 3-1 0.39% 5.98% $20.00
20 Florida State 1-2 0.29% 7.79% $20.00
20 San Diego State 5-0 0.29% 23.86% $20.00
22 Oregon 4-1 0.24% 12.97 $20.00
23 Virginia Tech 4-1 0.15% 8.09% $20.00
24 Miami (FL) 3-0 0.10% 17.02% $20.00
24 Navy 4-0 0.10% 16.57% $20.00
24 South Florida 5-0 0.10 20.03% $20.00
24 Wake Forest 4-1 0.10% 3.66% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

BULLDOGS CONTINUE TO CLIMB: The Georgia Bulldogs’ 42.27% chance to make the national championship game, combined with their 52.59% chance to make the four-team playoff field, are impressive numbers for such an early point in the college football season. Certainly it is a byproduct of Georgia’s impressive play on the field. However, it can also be seen as a commentary on the rest of Georgia’s schedule, including what looks to be a weaker-than-normal SEC East Division.

The SEC East is one of just three Power 5 divisions that has only one team in the Top 25 of the FPCI. The others are the Big Ten West and Pac-12 South. Georgia’s remaining SEC East foes have a combined 5-7 conference record, which is buoyed dramatically by Florida’s undefeated but not-that-impressive 3-0 SEC mark. The Bulldogs do not have the highest percent chance to win the SEC, however – that still belongs to Alabama at 23.24% — but the Bulldogs’ higher percent chance to make the playoffs and the national championship game is a nod to Alabama’s more difficult road to Atlanta going through the SEC West.

MORE EXCITEMENT LATE NIGHT IN THE PAC-12: #pac12afterdark isn’t just a slick marketing hashtag. When the sun goes down out west, crazy occurrences and back-and-forth scoring shootouts often occur. Already this season we’ve seen Boise State and Washington State go into triple overtime before the Cougars pulled out a 47-44 victory. We also saw Arizona State outlasting and stunning the upstart Oregon Ducks and Utah needing a late fourth quarter fumble recovery to fend off upset-minded Arizona on Friday night in the desert in Week 4.

Week 5 was no exception, as the Washington State Cougars proved they’ve finally developed a defense to go along with their high-powered offense. The Cougars snapped a 15-game losing streak against ranked opponents, the Power 5’s longest such losing streak, when they defeated USC, 30-27. The win vaulted Washington State all the way to the No. 4 position in this week’s FPCI. At 5-0, the Cougars have a 19.18% chance to make the championship game but could have been heading into a hornet’s nest on Saturday when they travel to Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks. However, the Ducks lost their starting quarterback to a broken collar bone, severely limiting Oregon’s chances and giving Washington State’s magical season that much more of a boost as they enter the middle of the regular season schedule.

BIG 12 PLUMMETING: The Big 12 has missed out on the College Football Playoff two of the three years the playoffs have been in existence, and the 2017 season looks to be headed down the same road. Unless an undefeated Oklahoma can make it through the regular season and the conference championship game unscathed, it appears that the conference’s overall strength could keep it on the outside looking in. This week the Sooners are at No. 5 in the FPCI with an 18.69% chance to make the national championship game, still on the outside of the four-team group but definitely within striking distance. The Sooners are also favored in all of their remaining regular season games except for their Bedlam Series matchup in Stillwater against Oklahoma State, which the FPCI has at a pick ’em with each team owning a 50% chance to win the game.

Looking at the FPCI’s overall conference standings, the Big 12 has actually dropped behind the American Athletic Conference, a non-Power 5 league, in the pecking order. The SEC has been No. 1 all season and remains that way, followed by the ACC, which is up from No. 3 last week. The ACC traded spots with the Pac-12, which is No. 3 this week, with the Big Ten coming in at No. 4.

The American Athletic has three teams in this week’s FPCI Top 25 – No. 14 Central Florida and Nos. 24 South Florida and Navy. The Big 12 also has three teams ranked in the FPCI Top 25 with No. 5 Oklahoma, No. 10 TCU, and No. 18 Oklahoma State.

CRASHING THE PARTY: The American Athletic Conference’s No. 5 conference ranking marks the first time this season that a non-Power 5 conference is in the top five of the conference rankings. And while it is still extremely unlikely that a team from the American Athletic Conference or any other non-Power 5 league will break the glass ceiling and make the playoff field, there is an interesting team lurking that is not part of the Power 5, and that is Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish come in at No. 7 in the FPCI this week with a 4-1 overall record and an 11.74% chance to make the national championship game.

As an independent, Notre Dame does not play in a conference and, thus, does not have the same 13th data point that other Power 5 conference champions have. However, the Irish are a national brand and, already at No. 7, there are enough marquee games on their schedule for them to be in the fold if they can win out. Currently the FPCI has Notre Dame favored in all of their remaining games but projects the Irish to have a 9-3 overall record by season’s end. Notre Dame has an 85% chance to beat North Carolina this weekend and then a 62% chance to beat USC the following week. The Irish’s other marquee games come on November 11 at Miami (60% chance to win) and at Stanford in the regular season finale (63% chance to win).

EASIEST ROADS TO CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES: The route to the College Football Playoff begins with the conference championship games, and for some the path to those games is easier to navigate than for other thanks to the schedule maker. When assessing a team’s chances to make the national championship game, one important factor continues to be the remaining schedule and how many quality opponents are left for a team to play. For example, in the SEC East, Georgia appears to have smooth sailing to the SEC Championship Game, especially if it can pick up a win over Florida in the World’s Largest Cocktail Party. The Bulldogs’ remaining schedule includes a number of weaker teams in the division, including upcoming games against Vanderbilt (3-2) and Missouri (1-3) before taking on Florida. According to the FPCI, the only real test left for the Bulldogs in the regular season is a November 11 matchup at Auburn, which Georgia has a 56% chance to win. By that time the Bulldogs may have already wrapped up the SEC East, though, and the matchup would essentially be meaningless as it relates to the conference championship race.

Another team that appears to have smooth sailing to its conference championship game is Clemson. The Tigers have already faced their biggest threats of the regular season in Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech and we’re still in September. Of the seven games remaining on Clemson’s schedule, the lowest percentage to win comes against Georgia Tech on October 28. In that game, Clemson has an 81% chance to win. There are two other games in which the Tigers have just an 82% chance to win – at North Carolina State and against Florida State. All of the remaining games are near or above 90% as it relates to Clemson’s chances for victory.

A similar path is laid out for Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. The Badgers, currently at 4-0, are favored to win all of the remaining games according to the FPCI, with the lowest percent chance to win coming in their home game against Michigan on November 18. In that game the Badgers have a 61% chance to win. The next lowest percentage on Wisconsin’s remaining schedule is 71% at Minnesota and 77% chance to win at Indiana and against Iowa.

The clearest path to the conference championship game in the Pac-12 is Washington. The Huskies have a 64% chance to win at Stanford on November 10, according to the FPCI. That’s the lowest percentage left on the schedule, with their home game against Oregon at a 70% chance to win and their season finale against Washington State coming in at a 74% chance to win.

 

 

Fan Plan Championship Index for Sept. 24

DALLAS, TX — Another week, another No. 1 team sits atop the Fan Plan Championship Index. This week it’s the Georgia Bulldogs that have become the favorites to play in the national championship game in Atlanta. Georgia, ranked No. 15 a week ago with just a 2.00% chance to play in the championship game, saw its chance improve dramatically with its dominating win over the previously No. 5 Mississippi State Bulldogs. Georgia now sits with a 31.31% chance to play in the national championship game.

The Bulldogs move to the top came at the expense of Oklahoma, who held the No.1 spot for just a week. The Sooners (26.22%) fell to No. 4 this week after struggling mightily on the road at lowly Baylor. Clemson and Michigan held strong at Nos. 2 and 3, with the Tigers upping their championship game percentage to 30.04%, while the Wolverines improved their chances to 26.27%.

Mississippi State plummeted to No. 20 with its loss, while Oklahoma State, the only other Top 10 team to lose last week, dropped to No. 17. The Cowboys suffered a home loss to TCU. The Horned Frogs entered the Top 10 this week for the first time, coming in at No. 9 overall with a 7.78% chance to make the championship game.

Following the Sooners at No. 4 this week and on the outside of the playoffs is No. 5 Alabama (13.36%). Nos. 6-10 include USC (13.16%), Penn State (9.64%), Ohio State (8.07%), TCU, and Wisconsin (7.73%).

WK 3 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Georgia 4-0 31.31% 21.28% $270.05
2 Clemson 4-0 30.04% 22.72% $259.10
3 Michigan 4-0 26.27% 16.16% $246.28
4 Oklahoma 4-0 26.22% 27.78% $245.81
5 Alabama 4-0 13.36% 23.25% $125.25
6 USC 4-0 13.16% 28.95% $98.70
7 Penn State 4-0 9.64% 19.19% $96.40
8 Ohio State 3-1 8.07% 22.06% $80.70
9 TCU 4-0 7.78% 23.82% $77.80
10 Wisconsin 3-0 7.73% 21.64% $77.30
11 Washington 4-0 7.34% 27.48% $73.40
12 Notre Dame 3-1 4.11% N/A $51.38
13 Washington State 4-0 4.01% 8.41% $50.13
14 Texas Tech 3-0 2.30% 7.46% $28.75
15 Virginia Tech 4-0 1.96% 11.05% $24.50
16 Auburn 3-1 1.42% 9.38% $20.00
17 Oklahoma State 3-1 0.83% 17.29% $20.00
18 Duke 4-0 0.73% 13.65% $20.00
19 Utah 4-0 0.64% 4.62% $20.00
20 Mississippi State 3-1 0.49% 10.88% $20.00
21 Georgia Tech 2-1 0.44% 9.46% $20.00
22 Minnesota 3-0 0.34% 7.50% $20.00
23 LSU 3-1 0.20% 4.38% $20.00
23 Oregon 3-1 0.20% 7.13% $20.00
23 USF 4-0 0.20% 19.24% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

A NEW SET OF BULLDOGS: Last week it was the Mississippi State Bulldogs that crashed the FPCI Top 5 after a huge win over the LSU Tigers, seemingly announcing MSU’s arrival as the top challenger to Alabama within the SEC. But the tables were quickly turned this week, vaulting another set of SEC Bulldogs to the forefront. Georgia’s decisive 31-3 win over Mississippi State sent UGA all the way to No. 1 in the FPCI ratings with a 31.31% chance to make the national championship game.

Does the FPCI think the Bulldogs are the best team in the country right now? Not necessarily, as Georgia only comes in at No. 11 in the FPCI power rankings. But what makes the FPCI “next-level” analytics is its ability to look past the current moment and project how a team will finish the season. In this case, it sees a weak SEC East, giving the Bulldogs a great chance to end up in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, likely against Alabama. Then the Bulldogs would just have to win that game in order to advance to the playoffs.

The FPCI actually gives Alabama a slightly better chance to win the SEC – Alabama has a 23.25% chance to win the league as compared to Georgia’s 21.28% chance. However, because there are three SEC West foes (Auburn, Mississippi State, LSU) more highly rated in the FPCI than the next-best SEC East team (South Carolina), the FPCI is giving the Crimson Tide a higher chance of slipping up in the regular season and potentially missing out on the SEC Championship Game. If it were to come down to it, the FPCI currently projects a 27-15 Alabama win should the teams were to meet in the SEC Championship Game. However, of the thousands of simulations run this week as part of the FPCI ratings process, there were more situations where Georgia finished as the SEC championship game winner than did Alabama, thus placing the Bulldogs into the College Football Playoff.

SIGH OF RELIEF OR SEPERATION?: Ready to rush the field, the Iowa faithful Saturday night at Kinnick Stadium knew all-too-well what was about to happen. Iowa had won its last three meetings against Top 5 teams at home and was undefeated in the four games it hosted at night over the past two seasons. But on this night, unlike on previous occasions, Penn State had the final answer.

The fourth-down touchdown pass with no time left on the clock allowed the Nittany Lions to exhale a huge sigh of relief, knowing they just cleared one of the biggest hurdles along the way to the conference championship. But in addition to that, Penn State also notched the biggest win of the season thus far among the Big 3 from the Big Ten East. Whether that counts as separation or not, it should give the Nittany Lions a boost of confidence as the season progresses, especially as they try to repeat as Big Ten champions and do so in convincing enough fashion so that they are not again left out of the playoffs.

This week the Nittany Lions rank No. 7 overall in the FPCI with a 9.64% chance to play in the national championship game. That’s the second-highest percentage for a Big Ten team, behind only the Michigan Wolverines at No. 3 and a 26.27% chance and ahead of No. 8 Ohio state at 8.07%. But the argument can be made that Penn State has been the most impressive Big Ten team on the field this season. Penn State’s defining games against Michigan and Ohio State will come in back-to-back weeks at the end of October. Prior to that are winnable games against Indiana and Northwestern and then a bye week, but if the way they responded at the end of the Iowa game is any indication, Penn State is on a mission that could well end up in Atlanta in January.

WHAT TO MAKE OF WASHINGTON?: The Pac-12 is on the outside looking in this week in the FPCI rankings, as USC, the highest-rated team in the league, comes in at No. 6 with a 13.16% chance of making the national championship game. Washington follows at No. 11 overall with a 7.34% chance to make the championship game, but one stat that makes the Huskies an interesting team to keep an eye on is the Huskies’ No. 3 overall power ranking, meaning that as of this week the FPCI sees Washington as the third-best team in the land. So why the discrepancy in the Huskies’ overall FPCI rank? One reason is likely Washington’s early-season schedule and the fact that we haven’t yet seen Washington battle what the FPCI sees as a formidable opponent. Of the top 10 teams in this week’s FPCI, all but Ohio State and Wisconsin have beaten better opponents than Washington’s slate of Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State, and Colorado. If strength of schedule is what’s holding back Washington in the FPCI, it will likely continue to be an issue throughout the remainder of the season. The Huskies’ current FPCI strength of schedule is 101 of 130 teams. The FPCI projects Washington’s final SOS to be only 51, which is much lower than typical national championship contenders. However, while the Huskies do not play USC in the regular season, should both teams advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game, strength of schedule will go out the window and head-to-head outcome will go a long way in determining which, if any, of the Pac-12 powers will be playoff bound.

SPEAKING OF POWER RANKINGS: Comparing the FPCI’s power rankings with the overall rankings again tells the story of how different the FPCI is than the human polls or any other computer-based ratings that currently exist. The FPCI power rankings, which rate each team’s overall strength and performance from top to bottom through this point in the season and can be compared to the human polls, still has the Alabama Crimson Tide as the No. 1 overall team. The list below shows the top ten teams in the FPCI power rankings, along with those teams’ overall FPCI rating in parenthesis:

  1. Alabama (5)
  2. Clemson (2)
  3. Washington (11)
  4. Ohio State (8)
  5. Oklahoma (4)
  6. USC (6)
  7. Wisconsin (10)
  8. Oklahoma State (17)
  9. Michigan (3)
  10. Penn State (7)

A NEW BIG 12 CONTENDER MAKES ITS PRESENCE KNOWN: As one of the few Big 12 schools who still wants to rely on its defense to slow down opponents, the TCU Horned Frogs may have dropped from our collective thoughts during the first month of the season, but Saturday’s huge win at Oklahoma State announced to the college football world that TCU will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big 12. In combining a secondary that can actually cover opposing receivers and an offense that can maintain the ball long enough to keep opposing offenses off of the field, TCU may have found the perfect formula to defeat pass-happy Big 12 offenses. If that’s the case, that will bode well for the Horned Frogs going forward, starting with this weekend’s match-up against West Virginia. TCU rose to No. 9 in the FPCI this week with a 7.78% chance to play for the national championship. They also increased their percentage to win the Big 12 to 23.82%, the second-highest percentage of any Big 12 team (Oklahoma has a 27.78% chance to win the Big 12). TCU still has to play at Oklahoma later this season, but the Horned Frogs may not see that as the hurdle that most will – of the four teams ranked in the top six that the Horned Frogs have faced on the road since 2010, TCU is 3-1, with its only loss coming by three points against Baylor in 2014.

NEXT: That’s the mantra that FPCI No. 2 Clemson (30.04% chance to play in the national championship game) will take into its contest against Virginia Tech this week. The Tigers have faced one of the toughest schedules through the first quarter of the season and have impressive wins over Auburn and Louisville already under their belts. The Tigers have faced all challengers and dismissed every one of them in defending their national championship, and this week represents another challenge to the throne. Clemson heads to Blacksburg for a Saturday night showdown with the FPCI No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (1.9% chance to make the championship game). The game against the Hokies represents the second time this season that Clemson will take on the perceived second-best team in the ACC on the road. Two weeks ago, Clemson went into Louisville and summarily dismissed the Cardinals, 47-21. If they can accomplish the same feat in Blacksburg, it will make it extremely challenging to figure out how Clemson will be kept out of the ACC Championship Game.

POSITIONING THEMSELVES TO PLAY THE SPOILER: From 4-8 to College Football Playoff contender? That’s the jump the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are attempting to make, and on the surface, it appears that the Irish should be in the conversation at this point in the season. Notre Dame, ranked No. 12 in this week’s FPCI with a 4.11% chance to make the national championship game, is 3-1 through the first quarter of the schedule, with that one loss coming by one point to the current FPCI No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs. The defense has certainly improved from that of a year ago and Brian Kelly may have found the right guy to run his offense in QB Brandon Wimbush. After rushing for 207 yards and four touchdowns against Boston College a week ago, Wimbush showed his passing skills in a 14-for-20, 173 yard effort en route to a 38-18 win on the road at Michigan State. The Irish will have to be special the rest of the way in order to move ahead of a conference champion when the playoff ballots are presented, but there are enough quality opponents left on the schedule for Notre Dame to make a strong impression. The Fighting Irish should move to 5-1 with wins against Miami (OH) and North Carolina before a home showdown against rival USC. Should Notre Dame come out on the right side of that matchup, there are difficult but winnable games remaining on the slate, including NC State, Miami (FL), Navy, and Stanford. With an 11-1 record against that slate of opponents, Irish eyes could be smiling once again.

CRASHING THE PARTY, AND ONE THAT COULD HAVE BEEN: It would be one thing for Notre Dame to force its way into the CFP, but a non-Power Five team? It’s highly unlikely, but Week 5 brings the first FPCI Top 25 ranking of one of those non-Power Five teams. The USF Bulls, under the direction of first-year head coach Charlie Strong, comes in at No. 25 overall this week. Though they still have just a 0.20% chance to play in the national championship game, the Bulls have positioned themselves as the best of the rest so far this season. It’s unprecedented for a non-Power Five team to even be in the conversation for the playoffs and much will depend on how strong the eventual conference champions are (i.e. are there any 2-loss or even 3-loss conference champions), but all USF can do for its part is keep winning games, which it has been able to do this far this season. USF’s toughest remaining opponent could be UCF in the last regular season game for both teams, a UCF team that by the end of the year may also be in a similar position as USF currently finds itself.

The Golden Knights are 2-0 thus far with two games cancelled and one rescheduled due to hurricanes. Those two cancelled games were against Georgia Tech and Maine, and a win over Georgia Tech would have been huge for UCF’s resume if the Golden Knights could have found a way to beat the Yellow Jackets. UCF will be able to make up its postponed game against Memphis this weekend, keeping a quality opponent with a win over a Pac-12 school on its schedule. On Saturday, the Golden Knights defeated Maryland 38-10, the same Maryland that picked up a surprise victory over Texas to open the season. Despite not getting to play Georgia Tech, an 11-0 UCF would likely make a better case than a 12-0 USF would be able to make, based on its schedule, but would just 11 wins by a non-Power Five team be enough to displace a conference champion? It sure would be entertaining if we get to see that argument play out.


 

Fan Plan Championship Index for Sept. 18

DALLAS, TX (September 18, 2017) Week 4 of the college football season brings a shake-up atop the Fan Plan Championship Index ratings. The Oklahoma Sooners have moved to the top of the standings with a 31.10% chance to make the national championship game, followed by the Clemson Tigers at No. 2 with a 26.16% chance to make the championship game. Alabama, which has been No. 1 throughout the preseason and early season, drops to No. 3 overall with a 22.40% chance to make the championship game.

Michigan rounds out the top four and qualified for the fourth projected playoff seed. This week the Pac-12 is the conference projected to be left out, as USC (11.59% chance to make the championship game) is the highest rated team from that conference but comes in at No. 7 overall in the FPCI after being ranked No. 3 a week ago.

The biggest jump came from Mississippi State, which ranked No. 5 overall this week with a 12.03% chance to make the national championship game. The Bulldogs have make huge strides in back-to-back weeks, going from unranked to No. 14 last week and now jumping from No. 14 to No. 5 following their impressive win over previously No. 10 LSU.

Following Mississippi State, Nos. 6-10 include Penn State (11.93%), Ohio State (11.59%), USC, Oklahoma State (10.32%), and Wisconsin (9.88%).

 

WK 4 RANK TEAM % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Oklahoma 31.10% 29.32% $357.65
2 Clemson 26.16% 23.27% $300.84
3 Alabama 22.40% 22.34% $257.60
4 Michigan 18.04% 15.60% $135.30
5 Mississippi State 12.03% 16.19% $90.22
6 Penn State 11.93% 16.72% $89.47
7 Ohio State 11.59% 23.33% $86.92
7 USC 11.59% 28.68% $86.92
9 Oklahoma State 10.32% 25.86% $77.40
10 Wisconsin 9.88% 21.27% $98.80
11 Washington 7.97% 24.65% $79.70
12 TCU 3.57% 11.68% $44.63
13 Washington State 2.98% 7.21% $37.25
14 Oregon 2.20% 14.52% $27.50
15 Georgia 2.00% 12.59% $25.00
15 Iowa 2.00% 3.36% $24.50
17 Michigan State 1.96% 4.65% $24.50
18 Minnesota 1.91% 6.87% $23.88
19 Auburn 1.37% 8.65% $20.00
20 Utah 1.12% 4.35% $20.00
21 Colorado 0.68% 4.18% $20.00
21 Florida State 0.68% 15.27% $20.00
23 Florida 0.64% 16.01% $20.00
23 Virginia Tech 0.64% 10.77% $20.00
25 Cal 0.59% 2.05% $20.00

More…

Fan Plan Championship Index for Sept. 11

DALLAS, TX (September 11, 2017) – Just two weeks into the 2017 college football season and we’ve already had some major shake-ups in the chase for college football’s national championship. Among the major movement in the rankings following an exciting season-opening weekend was Florida State’s tumble after its loss to Alabama and, more consequential, the loss of its starting quarterback for the season. Then, Week 2 provided another blow to a heavily-favored playoff contender when the Oklahoma Sooners went into Columbus and had their way with Ohio State.

With the win Oklahoma vaulted from No. 6 in the Fan Plan Championship Index (“FPCI”) all the way to No. 2 with a 25.6% chance to make the national championship game. The Sooners stand behind only Alabama, which again sits atop the FPCI at No. 1 with a 34.5% chance to play in the national championship game, down just slightly from the previous week.

With big Week 2 wins against ranked opponents under their belts, USC and Clemson remained in the Top 4, reflective of the favorites to advance to the College Football Playoff. However, USC jumped to the No. 3 spot with a 22.4% chance to make the championship game, up nearly ten percentage points from a week ago, and Clemson dropped to No. 4, though the Tigers’ overall percentage rose slightly to 18.6%.

The top 10 is rounded out by Michigan (11.09%), Penn State (9.96%), Washington (9.71%), Louisville (8.37%), Ohio State (7.28%), and LSU (4.85%).

WK 3

RANK

TEAM % TO MAKE

CHAMPIONSHIP

% TO WIN

CONFERENCE

FAN PLAN

PRICE

1 Alabama 34.47% 22.83% $396.41
2 Oklahoma 25.56% 28.80% $239.63
3 USC 22.44% 29.40% $210.38
4 Clemson 18.57% 20.71% $174.09
5 Michigan 11.09% 17.19% $83.18
6 Penn State 9.96% 14.66% $99.60
7 Washington 9.71% 24.19% $97.10
8 Louisville 8.37% 16.42% $83.70
9 Ohio State 7.28% 23.25% $72.80
10 LSU 4.85% 13.78% $60.63
11 Oklahoma State 4.75% 20.68% $59.38
12 Tennessee 4.16% 9.04% $52.00
13 Wisconsin 3.96% 19.32% $49.50
14 Mississippi State 2.92% 6.19% $36.50
15 TCU 2.77% 11.56% $34.63
16 Utah 2.38% 4.02% $29.75
17 Kansas State 2.33% 12.14% $29.13
18 Georgia 2.03% 13.65% $25.38
18 Michigan State 2.03% 6.00% $25.38
18 Washington State 2.03% 6.07% $25.38
21 Colorado 1.98% 6.07% $24.75
22 Auburn 1.78% 10.76% $22.25
22 Oregon 1.78% 11.59% $22.25
24 UCLA 1.34% 3.56% $20.00
25 Iowa 1.29% 5.19% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

IN AND OUT: Four teams are making their 2017 debuts in the FPCI this week, including some surprise entrants that are unranked in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll this week. Mississippi State (2.92% chance to play in the national championship game) makes its first appearance in the FPCI at No. 14 overall, taking advantage of losses by Auburn and Arkansas in the SEC, along with the fact that Ole Miss is unable to play for the conference title this season. The Bulldogs, whose Fan Plan this week is $36.50, received votes in both human polls this week but have yet to be ranked. They will face a stiff test this coming week when they host the No. 10 LSU Tigers (4.85% chance to make the championship game, $60.63) in both teams’ first SEC clash of the season.

Two other schools are ranked in the FPCI this week without being ranked by either human polls. Those teams are No. 18 Michigan State (2.03%, $25.38) and No. 25 Iowa (1.29%, $20.00), both out of the Big Ten. The Big Ten has six teams in the FPCI Top 25, including three in the Top 10 in Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State. That conference appears to be the most unsettled at the top, as the loss by Ohio State opened up the door for a few more potential contenders.

And finally there is UCLA, which earned its spot in the FPCI at No. 24. The Bruins (1.34%, $20.00), ranked No. 25 in the AP Poll and unranked in the Coaches Poll, replaced Stanford as a Pac-12 representative in the FPCI this week. Stanford dropped out of the rankings after a loss to USC, while Notre Dame, Florida State, and Virginia Tech also fell out of the FPCI Top 25 for the week.

RANKING THE CONFERENCES: There were no changes in the FPCI conference strengths this week, as once again the SEC stood atop the conference standings thanks to Alabama’s overall strength. The SEC is followed by the Pac-12, Big Ten, and ACC as the top four conferences. For the second straight week the Big 12 is on the outside looking in despite Oklahoma’s huge out-of-conference victory over Ohio State, the former top team in the Big Ten. After Oklahoma, which comes in at No. 2 in this week’s FPCI, the Big 12 doesn’t have a ranked team until Oklahoma State at No. 11. All other Power 5 conferences have multiple teams in the FPCI Top 10, led by the Big Ten with three.

BREAKING DOWN THE CONFERENCES: In an era when winning your conference is almost a must in order to make it into the playoff field, the Pac-12 seems to have really separated itself as having a group of elite contenders, followed distantly by the rest of the pack. USC currently carries the highest percentage of any team in the Power 5 to win its conference, coming in at a 29.40% chance to win the Pac-12. The Trojans are followed closely by Washington which is at 24.19%. The two teams combine for a better than 50% chance to win the conference. Surprisingly, Oregon is next with a 11.59% chance to win the Pac-12, followed by Washington State and Colorado who are both at 6.07% and UCLA at 3.56%.

The largest spread from the favorite to the second-rated team in the conference comes from the SEC where Alabama is atop the ratings at 22.83%. The next team in the SEC is LSU at 13.78%, followed closely by Georgia at 13.65%.

The Big Ten seems to be the most wide open of any conference. Ohio State, despite having a lower chance than both Michigan and Penn State to advance to the national championship game, has a higher chance to win the Big Ten than do both of those teams ranked ahead of the Buckeyes. Ohio State still has a 23.25% chance to win the Big Ten according to the FPCI, but a 7.28% chance to play in the national championship game. Further, Wisconsin, which is on the opposite side of the conference standings than Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, also has a better chance to win the Big Ten than Michigan and Penn State despite a much lower overall percent chance to play in the national championship game. Wisconsin has a 19.32% chance to win the Big Ten and a 3.96% chance to play for the national championship. Michigan comes in at a 17.19% chance to win the Big Ten, followed by Penn State at 14.66%.

The Oklahoma teams are dominating the Big 12 to no surprise. The Sooners have a 28.8% chance to win the conference, the second-highest percentage of any Power 5 team to win its conference, followed by Oklahoma State at 20.68%. The next Big 12 teams are Kansas State at 12.14% and TCU at 11.56%.

Clemson is currently the class of the ACC at a 20.71% chance to win the conference, followed by Louisville at 16.42%. Those two teams face each other this weekend in a huge early-season conference showdown. One of those teams will obviously lose, and that’s good news for Florida State, which is unranked in this week’s FPCI but still holds onto a 15.77% chance to win the ACC.

BEEN THERE BEFORE: If history is any indication, the Ohio State Buckeyes may be the best buy on the board this week after suffering a tough loss to Oklahoma. The Buckeyes fell from No. 2 in the FPCI to No. 9 with a 7.28% chance to play in the national championship game and a Fan Plan cost of just $72.80. However, it’s not like we haven’t heard this song before. Remember 2014 when the Buckeyes lost a Week 2 out-of-conference showdown at the ‘Shoe? That year it was against Virginia Tech, and guess who the QB was back then for Ohio State? That’s right, J.T. Barrett, who also struggled in that game as well, finishing just 9-for-29 throwing the football for 219 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. But 2014 was one of the seasons in the playoff era when a team that suffered a September home loss actually came back to claim the national crown. The other season was 2015 when the Alabama Crimson Tide lost at home in Week 3 to Ole Miss, only to rebound and win it all. So don’t count out the Buckeyes just yet. This might well be the cheapest their Fan Plan will be all season.

TOP FAN PLAN SELLERS: If the public sales of Fan Plans are any indication, we are setting up for an exciting playoff season. As of Sunday, the top selling team was Oklahoma. Other teams seeing brisk sales included Washington and USC out of the Pac-12, Alabama and Georgia from the SEC, Florida State from the ACC, and Ohio State and Michigan State from the Big 10. But as Fan Plan sales have proven, owning a Fan Plan is not all about who will be playing in the national championship game. It’s also about a source of pride and passion for their school for those buying them, as proven by Fan Plan purchases for teams such as Florida International, North Texas, Southern Miss, and Tulane. No matter what team you’re rooting for, owning a Fan Plan provides a little more excitement to the college football season.

 

Alabama tops Fan Plan Championship Index

DALLAS (September 5, 2017) — The Alabama Crimson Tide remained in the top spot on the Fan Plan Championship Index (“FPCI”) this week, rising even higher after an impressive win over the Florida State Seminoles. The Crimson Tide enters Week 2 of the season with a 35.84 percent chance to make the national championship game, improving nearly 11 percentage points over its chances from a week ago.

Compiled weekly during the season by Fan Plan, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The other three teams in the FPCI top four and, thus, currently projected to make the playoffs are Ohio State (27.38 percent to make the championship game), Clemson (15.25 percent) and USC (14.65 percent).

The top 10 is rounded out by Michigan (11.09 percent), Oklahoma (8.37 percent), Wisconsin (8.27 percent), LSU (7.18 percent Penn State (6.49 percent), and Washington (6.49 percent).

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