Fan Plan Championship Index for Oct. 9 Reply

DALLAS, TX – For the first time this season the Clemson Tigers are the favorites to play in the college football national championship game. The Tigers have a 50.24% chance to make the championship game, according to the Week 7 ratings of the Fan Plan Championship Index. Clemson is 6-0 at the halfway point of the season with wins over current No. 9 Auburn and No. 24 Virginia Tech already on its resume.

The FPCI rankings were sent into upheaval with the losses by last week’s third-ranked Michigan Wolverines and fifth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners over the weekend. With the Michigan loss, Penn State replaced the Wolverines as the Big Ten representative in the projected playoff field, as the Nittany Lions now have a 21.14% chance to make the national championship game and a 21.78% chance to win the Big Ten. The Oklahoma loss caused the Big 12 to tumble even further from the playoff field. The closest team from the Big 12 to the playoff field is now No. 11 TCU with a 1.17% chance to make the national championship game.

Georgia (20.69%) dropped from No. 1 to No. 4 overall, while Washington State (43.10%) moved up from No. 4 to No. 2. Georgia’s drop is being precipitated by the SEC having three teams in the Top 10 this week, including No. 8 Alabama (7.73%) and No. 9 Auburn (3.08%), along with an overall drop by the SEC in the conference rankings.

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 5 Notre Dame (19.03%). No. 6 Ohio State (17.42%), No. 7 Washington (10.08%), No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Auburn, and No. 10 Michigan State (2.25%).

WK 7 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Clemson 6-0 50.24% 22.15% $433.32
2 Washington State 6-0 43.10% 22.45% $371.74
3 Penn State 6-0 21.14% 21.78% $198.19
4 Georgia 6-0 20.69% 22.62% $193.97
5 Notre Dame 5-1 19.03% N/A $178.41
6 Ohio State 5-1 17.42% 23.25% $163.31
7 Washington 6-0 10.08% 25.87% $75.60
8 Alabama 6-0 7.73% 22.92% $77.30
9 Auburn 5-1 3.08% 17.49% $38.50
10 Michigan State 4-1 2.25% 11.84% $28.13
11 TCU 5-0 1.17% 22.08% $20.00
12 USC 5-1 0.88% 21.31% $20.00
13 Michigan 4-1 0.73% 5.45% $20.00
14 San Diego State 6-0 0.54% 24.93% $20.00
15 Georgia Tech 3-1 0.39% 10.47% $20.00
15 Wisconsin 6-0 0.39% 21.93% $20.00
17 Oklahoma 4-1 0.34% 18.04% $20.00
18 North Carolina State 5-1 0.29% 16.89% $20.00
19 Miami (FL) 4-0 0.24% 19.94% $20.00
20 Oklahoma State 4-1 0.10% 17.81% $20.00
21 Duke 4-2 0.05% 1.98% $20.00
21 Utah 4-1 0.05% 1.54% $20.00
21 Virginia Tech 5-1 0.05% 8.65% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

CONTENDERS SURGING, PRETENDERS FALLING BY THE WAYSIDE: The halfway point in the college football season gives us the first time the FPCI has indicated a team has a greater than 50% chance to make it to the national championship game. That designation is bestowed on the Clemson Tigers, which is also ranked No. 1 in the FPCI for the first time this season. Clemson enters the week with a 50.24% chance to play in the national championship game and a Fan Plan price of $433.32.

As one would expect, Week 7 also includes the fewest teams with a greater than zero percent chance to make the national championship game. This week there are just 23 teams that register in that metric, with the bottom three – Duke, Utah, and Virginia Tech – coming in at just a 0.05% chance to make the championship game.

CONFERENCE DECK SHUFFLED: For the first time this season, the SEC has fallen from the top spot in the FPCI conference rankings. Despite three teams in the Top 10, the SEC fell from No. 1 overall to No. 3. Those three SEC teams in the Top 10, however, account for all of the SEC teams with a chance to make it to the national championship game, according to the FPCI. That represents the fewest teams of any Power Five conference other than the Big 12, which also has just three teams remaining with a chance to make the national championship game.

The ACC and Pac-12 both moved up one spot in the FPCI conference rankings to No. 1 and No. 2, respectively. The ACC has six teams remaining with a chance to make the national championship game, with the No. 1 Clemson Tigers leading the way. The Pac-12 has four teams left. The Big Ten, with five teams left in the FPCI ratings, come in at No. 4 overall, with the American Athletic Conference at No. 5 and the Big 12 at No. 6.

BULLDOGS AND CRIMSON TIDE CONTINUE BATTLE FOR SEC SUPREMACY: After holding the top spot in the FPCI for two weeks, the Georgia Bulldogs fell to No. 4 after this week’s shakeup. And the Bulldogs’ advantage over their SEC counterparts also remains tenuous, with Alabama and Auburn also lurking in the FPCI Top 10. The Alabama Crimson Tide remain at No. 1 in the FPCI power rankings, a spot they have held for the entire season. Georgia comes in at No. 6 in the power rankings, while Auburn is at No. 15. In order for the Bulldogs to finish the season with a coveted playoff spot, they would have to beat Auburn in the regular season and likely Alabama as well in the SEC Championship Game.

Currently Georgia’s probability to play in the national championship game (20.69%) is considerably higher than Alabama’s 7.73%, despite the fact that Alabama is favored to win against Georgia by 8 points should they face each other in the SEC Championship Game. This is because Georgia has a key win against No. 5 Notre Dame (No. 7 power ranking) while Alabama hasn’t beaten a FPCI Top 25 team yet. Both teams will play current No. 9 Auburn in the regular season, and by that time, depending on the results, these percentages could swing drastically.

Below are the results and projected results for both Alabama and Georgia for the season. For the games not played yet, the probability to win is listed. Both teams are expected to win out. If that happens, these two teams will face each other in the SEC Championship Game, which the FPCI currently projects as an Alabama win.

Alabama Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Florida St                          W (24-7)             %

Sat, Sep 09         Fresno St                          W (41-10)           %

Sat, Sep 16         Colorado St                      W (41-23)           %

Sat, Sep 23         at Vanderbilt                   W (59-0)             %

Sat, Sep 30         Mississippi                       W (66-3)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at Texas A&M                  W (27-19)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Arkansas                           W (52-12)           99%

Sat, Oct 21         Tennessee                        W (44-6)             99%

Sat, Nov 04        LSU                                     W (40-3)             99%

Sat, Nov 11        at Mississippi St                   W (39-18)           95%

Sat, Nov 18        Mercer                              W (50-0)             99%

Sat, Nov 25        at (9) Auburn                   W (27-15)           82%

Georgia Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Appalachian St                W (31-10)           %

Sat, Sep 09         at (5) Notre Dame          W (20-19)           %

Sat, Sep 16         Samford                            W (42-14)           %

Sat, Sep 23         Mississippi St                   W (31-3)             %

Sat, Sep 30         at Tennessee                   W (41-0)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at Vanderbilt                   W (45-14)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Missouri                           W (52-9)             99%

Sat, Oct 28         at Florida                          W (34-10)           97%

Sat, Nov 04        South Carolina                W (29-3)             98%

Sat, Nov 11        at (9) Auburn                   W (19-15)           61%

Sat, Nov 18        Kentucky                           W (38-6)             99%

Sat, Nov 25        at Georgia Tech               W (29-19)           77%

WHY ARE THE IRISH SO HIGH?: The FPCI lists Notre Dame at No. 5 in this week’s ratings, much higher that the Fighting Irish are in any of the human polls this week. Because the FPCI is a projections-based metric, it looks at how the entire season is projected to play out and likes what it sees on the Notre Dame schedule for the rest of the season.

Notre Dame’s upcoming schedule includes three of its last six regular season games against FPCI Top 25 teams. That becomes five of six Top 25 teams based on the FPCI non-adjusted ratings. Further, the Fighting Irish are favored to win all of their remaining games, which would put them at 11-1 with only a one-point loss to Georgia. If that’s how the season plays out, it will be difficult to keep Notre Dame out of the Top 4, no matter what other teams are able to do the rest of the way.

Notre Dame Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Oct 21         (12) Southern Cal            W (36-27)           75%

Sat, Oct 28         (18) North Carolina St    W (42-27)           88%

Sat, Nov 04        Wake Forest                    W (38-22)           89%

Sat, Nov 11        at (16) Miami FL              W (35-30)           64%

Sat, Nov 18        Navy                                  W (44-22)           96%

Sat, Nov 25        at Stanford                       W (39-30)           75%

 

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