Spotlight on the Outland Trophy: OU’s Orlando Brown Reply

FWAA member Ryan Aber writes about Outland Trophy candidate Orlando Brown in The Oklahoman. Last season Brown was a second-team FWAA All-America.

CLICK HERE to read the story.

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Fan Plan Championship Index for week of Oct. 16 2

DALLAS — For the second week in a row turmoil atop college football has sent playoff contenders reeling. As a result, the Fan Plan Championship Index was once again reshuffled, leaving a familiar team back at the top of the standings in the race to determine which teams will be playing for the national championship this season.

A week after two of the FPCI’s Top 5 teams were beaten, this past weekend saw four of the Top 10 FPCI teams go down, including the top two teams on a wild Friday night of action. Thanks to Clemson’s loss at Syracuse and Washington State’s loss at Cal, the Alabama Crimson Tide have vaulted all the way back to the No. 1 overall spot from last week’s No. 8 position. The Crimson Tide now have a 46.08% chance to make the national championship game, a jump of more than 38 percentage points and the largest jump of any team. Alabama is followed by SEC rival Georgia, which moved up from No. 4 to No. 2. Georgia’s 44.15% chance to make the national championship game is up more than 23 percentage points from a week ago.

No. 3 Penn State (33.00%) and No. 4 Miami (24.22%) round out the Top 4 in the projected playoff field. Ohio State (19.59%), which is chasing Penn State for Big Ten supremacy, comes in just outside of the Top 4 at No. 5 overall.

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 6 Notre Dame (19.14%). No. 7 North Carolina State (4.64%), No. 8 Michigan State (3.80%), No. 9 Clemson (1.73%), and No. 10 USC (1.13%).

WK 8 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Alabama 7-0 46.08% 22.94% $264.96
2 Georgia 7-0 44.15% 22.46% $253.86
3 Penn State 6-0 33.00% 21.54% $206.25
4 Miami (FL) 5-0 24.22% 20.86% $151.38
5 Ohio State 6-1 19.59% 22.74% $146.93
6 Notre Dame 5-1 19.14% N/A $143.55
7 North Carolina State 6-1 4.64% 19.03% $58.00
8 Michigan State 5-0 7.73% 12.76% $47.50
9 Clemson 6-1 3.08% 17.48% $21.63
10 USC 6-1 2.25% 21.35% $20.00
11 Washington State 6-1 1.17% 10.75% $20.00
12 TCU 6-0 0.88% 24.94% $20.00
13 Oklahoma 5-1 0.73% 18.20% $20.00
14 Michigan 5-1 0.54% 6.15% $20.00
14 Wisconsin 6-0 0.39% 21.61% $20.00
16 Auburn 5-2 0.39% 11.23% $20.00
16 South Carolina 5-2 0.34% 7.80% $20.00
18 Mississippi State 4-2 0.29% 5.21% $20.00
18 Oklahoma State 5-1 0.24% 20.34% $20.00
18 Washington 6-1 0.10% 20.84% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

WELCOME BACK TO THE TOP, BUT WHEN WILL THE TIDE BE TESTED?: After sitting atop the Fan Plan Championship Index for three weeks and then giving way to other contenders for a month, the Alabama Crimson Tide have returned to the No. 1 spot atop the FPCI ratings. This week’s FPCI has Alabama with a 46.08% chance to play in the national championship game, a huge jump of more than 38 percentage points from a week ago when the Tide were at No. 8 in the FPCI rankings.

There’s no doubt that Alabama has been the most steady of the dominant teams in the country this season. The average score of an Alabama game this season has been 43-10. Alabama’s closest game was a 27-19 contest against Texas A&M a couple weeks ago, but the Tide were up 24-3 early in the third quarter in College Station. Was that final result more a matter of Alabama losing focus, or was it a chink in the armor? That’s still to be determined, but last weekend the Crimson Tide shut down any thoughts of an upset when Damian Williams took the first play of the game for a 75-yard touchdown en route to a 41-9 win over Arkansas.

According to the FPCI, Alabama is heavily favored to win its remaining regular season games, most of which the Tide have a greater than 90% chance to win. The lowest remaining percentage is at Auburn in the regular season finale, but even then Alabama currently has an 81% chance to win that game. If the season unfolds the way it’s currently going, this could be a historically easy path to the SEC championship, a conference that has prided itself with having huge slates of top teams through the recent decades. Currently Alabama has only played one game against an FPCI-ranked team at the time of the game – that was Week 1 against then- No. 4 Florida State. Alabama’s FPCI average opponent rank is 67.3 and Alabama’s opponents’ combined record is 24-20. Looking forward it doesn’t get much better, as the only remaining team on the Tide’s schedule ranked in the FPCI is Auburn at No. 16. Alabama, which is ranked No. 2 in this week’s FPCI power rankings, would also be favored in a potential SEC Championship Game match-up against No. 2 Georgia, with the FPCI simulations projecting a 25-14 Alabama win in that matchup. But all of that is on paper, and as the past two weekends in college football have proven, you really don’t know what to expect until a team finds itself in the fire. But for Alabama, it seems like that may not come before December, at the earliest.

CHAOS ABOUNDS, PART 2: Two weekends ago it was two FPCI Top 5 teams that went down and caused a huge shake-up in the FPCI ratings. But that was nothing compared to this past weekend when four FPCI Top 10 teams lost, including the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams in the land. When all of the dust cleared during what was supposed to be a ho-hum weekend on the schedule, the ruins that were left made it clear that we’re no closer to defining the playoff field than we were when we started the season.

WHAT WE THINK THE WEEKEND TAUGHT US:

Clemson Tigers: Friday night’s falterings by No. 1 Clemson and No. 2 Washington State sent shockwaves through college football. Clemson had finally made its way to the No. 1 overall spot in the FPCI with a projected 50.24% chance to make the national championship game. It also had the best resume of any of the contenders with wins over three teams that were highly ranked when they faced the Tigers in Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech, all three of which the Tigers summarily dismissed. But Friday night Clemson fell to a gutsy, if only average, Syracuse team and in the process lost its quarterback to a concussion. That marked the second consecutive questionable final score, as the week before some concern centered around the Clemson offense in a pedestrian 28-14 win over Wake Forest. This isn’t the same Clemson team as last season and the Tigers’ ability to lose focus – both by the players and the play callers (see Dabo Swinney’s refusal to just pound the ball down Syracuse’s throat) – is a little concerning. However, Clemson still appears to be the class of the conference and it might take more than one loss to keep them away from the playoff field.

Washington State: Yes, the Mike Leach offense is fun to watch when it’s clicking on all cylinders. And yes, it appears Washington State has a defense that’s better than anything Pullman has seen in the Mike Leach era. But yes, it’s still the same Mike Leach system that’s too prone to lay too many eggs at crucial times to trust that the Cougars are ready to run the table and claim the Pac-12 title with just one loss. The FPCI has Washington State at No. 11 overall with a 0.89% chance to play in the national championship game, and that’s probably much more realistic than last week’s No. 2 overall ranking following its huge victory over USC. The FPCI is projecting two more losses this regular season, one against Stanford and one at Washington. It’s also possible that the wheels could come off entirely, as Washington State only has a 54% chance to beat Arizona in Tucson and a 55% chance to win at Utah, both of which could be considered tossups at the moment.

Washington: What an implosion in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Following Washington State’s Friday night loss, the Washington Huskies had its chance to take control of the Pac-12 North. But as bad as Washington State looked on Friday, Washington wasn’t any better on Saturday in its 13-7 loss at Arizona State. Washington, last season’s playoff representative from the Pac-12, is still winless in Tempe since 2001. Arizona State previously allowed 30 or more points in 11 straight games and Washington entered the game averaging 43 points per game, but failed to find the endzone until the fourth quarter, going nearly 50 minutes without scoring. It still may be Washington or bust as far as the Pac-12’s playoff chances go, especially if USC falls to Notre Dame this week. The FPCI, which has Washington at No. 18 this week and a 0.05% chance to play in the national championship game, has Washington favored to win all of its remaining regular season games, which includes a road trip to Stanford. In that game the Huskies have a 55% chance to win with a projected score of 25-23. That would likely lead to a Pac-12 Championship Game rematch against USC, which the FPCI currently has as a 26-19 Washington win.

Auburn: The fourth FPCI Top 10 team to fall was Auburn, which was stunned by LSU after going on top 20-0 and seemingly headed to another route of an SEC West foe. In its three previous games, Auburn had beaten Missouri 51-14, Mississippi State 49-10, and Ole Miss 44-23, so the 20-0 start appeared to be just more of the same. But the home-standing Tigers turned the defensive tables on Auburn, which finished with just 65 total yards in the second half. They may have also provided the blueprint for stopping Gus Malzahn’s offense, a feat only Clemson had been able to approach this season. With both Georgia and Alabama left on the schedule, along with a tricky game at Texas A&M, this playoff dark horse a week ago now can seemingly only be a spoiler. But don’t be surprised if Auburn does take down one of the two SEC giants. The Alabama game is in Auburn this season, just a few years removed from the Kick Six in Jordan-Hare. This season of chaos is going a little too smoothly atop the SEC – so smooth that it now appears the SEC could get two teams into the playoffs if the right dominos fall –which is why an Auburn upset of Georgia or Alabama seems like a heck of a pick as the regular season winds to a close.

BEST CHANCE FOR A TWO-LOSS TEAM: While it’s still a longshot that a two-loss team will advance into a four-team playoff field, the odds of that happening continue to get shorter the more the top teams continue to lose. So does a two-loss team really have a shot at making the playoffs? Possibly, and if so, Stanford seems like the odds on favor. First and foremost, the Cardinal would have to win the Pac-12 Conference. As much of a stretch as it seems when discussing a two-loss team in the playoffs, it’s pretty much a lock that any two-loss team would have to be a conference champion to even be considered, and at this time Stanford seems like the two-loss team that’s in the best position to accomplish that feat.

The Cardinal began the 2017 campaign on a sour note. After beating Rice in the season opener, Stanford fell to USC 42-24 and to San Diego State 20-17 before righting the ship. One early-season loss can be overcome, especially when it’s to a team the caliber of USC. But that slip-up against the Aztecs was a dagger for a Stanford team that knows a lot about early season losses. In 2015, Stanford lost out of the gates to Northwestern, only to reel off eight straight wins to climb up to No. 7 in the rankings. But a 38-36 home loss to Oregon ended any hopes of the Cardinal advancing to the playoffs. Instead, Stanford trounced No. 5 Iowa in the Rose Bowl, 45-16. Stanford also dropped two early-season games in 2012 against Washington and Notre Dame before rallying to finish in the Top 10. In both seasons early season setbacks seemed too much to overcome, despite those Stanford teams finishing the year as good as anyone in the country.

That could happen again this year as the Cardinal are now surging after the two early-season losses. Stanford is 5-2 and winners of four in a row. The FPCI gives Stanford a 0.64% chance to make the playoff field. Stanford’s schedule down the stretch is tough, including games against No. 11 Washington State, No. 18 Washington, and No. 6 Notre Dame. The FPCI projects Stanford to still lose two of its remaining games, but by a combined three points. Essentially the game against Washington and the game against Notre Dame, both home games, are both toss-ups. If Stanford can traverse that regular season slate successfully and then win the Pac-12 Championship Game, it would mean 10 straight wins for the Cardinal to close out the season and a conference championship. With the Pac-12 currently listed as the second strongest conference in America, it’s conceivable to believe that a 10-2 Stanford team that has won 10 straight games could get in ahead of an 11-1 team from the Big 12, especially if that team is TCU and it were to go into the Big 12 Championship Game undefeated but lose to a 2-loss or 3-loss team.

WHAT ABOUT THE AMERICAN ATHLETIC?: Not only do all of the losses by supposed playoff contenders make for exciting weekends of action, but they also help keep alive the hopes of the undefeated non-Power 5 teams still lurking. Specifically, for UCF and USF of the American Athletic Conference, with every loss by a Power 5 heavyweight comes a bigger smile and more hope.

But the FPCI doesn’t exactly see it that way. The UCF Golden Knights and USF Bulls are both ranked No. 21 in the most recent Fan Plan Championship Index and both teams even have a small shot at making the playoff field, according to the FPCI. UCF enters Week 8 with a 25.67% chance to win the conference and a 3.95% chance to make the playoff field. USF has a 21.62% chance to make win the conference and a 0.44% chance to make the playoff field. But when it comes to the national championship game, that’s when both teams fall out of the race. In the thousands of simulations run by the FPCI to determine the Week 8 ratings and projections, neither UCF or USF won any of the semifinal games when they were actually projected to reach the playoff field, giving both a 0% chance to make the national championship game in Atlanta.

NFF’s Hatchell honored; Texas-OU luncheon hits 50 Reply

 

A reception was held this week in Dallas honoring Steve Hatchell, National Football Foundation President and CEO. Hatchell is being inducted into the Colorado University Athletic Hall of Fame on Nov. 9 . Hatchell was involved in sports administration at Colorado, his Alma Mater. Hatchell spoke to the crowd. He was honored with a cake. (Photos by Melissa Macatee)

This was a poster from the Annual Luncheon that the Cotton Bowl sponsored before the most recent Red River Showdown between Oklahoma and Texas. The luncheon has been held in Dallas for a half century when writers, broadcasters, sponsor and team officials gather the day before the game at the Cotton Bowl Stadium.

 

 

 

Kellner Computer Rankings for week of Oct. 15 Reply

The Cody Kellner Points Index gives each team a rating that is reflective of their strength of schedule and the success they had within it.  Results from last season are considered in the ratings, but diminish as a factor as the current season progresses.  Margin of victory is also considered in the ratings.

RANK SCHOOL RATING
1 ALABAMA 175.553
2 PENN STATE 140.041
3 GEORGIA 136.796
4 CLEMSON 133.506
5 OHIO STATE 126.237
6 WISCONSIN 121.988
7 USC 112.375
8 MIAMI FL 109.970
9 TCU 109.667
10 WASHINGTON 105.421
11 MICHIGAN 99.088
12 SOUTH FLORIDA 92.054
13 VIRGINIA TECH 89.426
14 UCF 85.635
15 OKLAHOMA STATE 84.360
16 NC STATE 84.353
17 NOTRE DAME 84.191
18 STANFORD 82.938
19 WASHINGTON STATE 82.542
20 OKLAHOMA 80.419
21 MICHIGAN STATE 73.573
22 AUBURN 71.178
23 SAN DIEGO STATE 67.989
24 LSU 63.976
25 TEXAS A&M 59.958
26 IOWA 59.012
27 SOUTH CAROLINA 58.998
28 KENTUCKY 56.004
29 BOISE STATE 55.820
30 WAKE FOREST 55.251
31 FLORIDA 50.620
32 MISSISSIPPI STATE 50.607
33 GEORGIA TECH 50.101
34 NAVY 49.506
35 FLORIDA STATE 48.266
36 CALIFORNIA 45.151
37 TOLEDO 44.555
38 MEMPHIS 44.379
39 UTAH 42.693
40 VIRGINIA 41.758
41 WEST VIRGINIA 40.018
42 LOUISVILLE 37.512
43 HOUSTON 35.369
44 COLORADO 35.359
45 COLORADO STATE 34.490
46 WESTERN MICHIGAN 34.265
47 OREGON 33.909
48 TEXAS TECH 29.586
49 SYRACUSE 27.803
50 MARSHALL 27.741
51 APPALACHIAN STATE 25.750
52 INDIANA 24.789
53 ARIZONA 24.510
54 ARIZONA STATE 23.557
55 IOWA STATE 21.838
56 DUKE 21.522
57 TEXAS 21.373
58 PURDUE 21.313
59 SMU 20.954
60 NORTHWESTERN 19.679
61 MINNESOTA 19.655
62 UCLA 18.628
63 NEBRASKA 17.904
64 TENNESSEE 17.769
65 FRESNO STATE 16.350
66 TROY 16.294
67 ARMY 15.195
68 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 15.093
69 MISSISSIPPI 14.921
70 VANDERBILT 12.962
71 MARYLAND 12.782
72 WYOMING 9.746
73 BOSTON COLLEGE 9.382
74 SOUTHERN MISS 6.968
75 OHIO 3.290
76 WESTERN KENTUCKY 2.140
77 ARKANSAS STATE 1.377
78 KANSAS STATE 0.108
79 NORTH TEXAS -4.047
80 ARKANSAS -7.135
81 TULANE -9.895
82 AIR FORCE -11.192
83 UTSA -11.794
84 LOUISIANA TECH -12.340
85 TEMPLE -15.622
86 TULSA -16.042
87 FLORIDA INTL -17.106
88 PITTSBURGH -17.264
89 AKRON -17.986
90 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -18.923
91 NEW MEXICO -19.741
92 UTAH STATE -20.375
93 ULL -21.922
94 RUTGERS -21.984
95 ILLINOIS -26.213
96 GEORGIA STATE -28.354
97 NEW MEXICO STATE -31.995
98 UNLV -32.960
99 ULM -33.317
100 SOUTH ALABAMA -33.508
101 EASTERN MICHIGAN -35.528
102 IDAHO -38.783
103 MIDDLE TENN STATE -40.602
104 BUFFALO -41.237
105 NORTH CAROLINA -41.436
106 HAWAII -42.173
107 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -43.875
108 UAB -47.542
109 OREGON STATE -47.747
110 CINCINNATI -47.901
111 CONNECTICUT -49.979
112 MISSOURI -53.879
113 BYU -54.475
114 OLD DOMINION -57.357
115 MIAMI OH -63.034
116 BALL STATE -68.759
117 BAYLOR -70.470
118 NEVADA -73.131
119 EAST CAROLINA -77.224
120 KENT -81.784
121 KANSAS -84.282
122 RICE -89.802
123 GEORGIA SOUTHERN -92.394
124 BOWLING GREEN -94.270
125 MASSACHUSETTS -102.136
126 COASTAL CAROLINA -104.830
127 TEXAS STATE -106.724
128 SAN JOSE STATE -109.708
129 UTEP -126.250
130 CHARLOTTE -140.839

 

Plati’s streak coming to an end at 410 football games Reply

Dave Plati, Colorado’s associate athletic director/sports information, is a long-time FWAA member. Under his leadership. Colorado has claimed an FWAA Super 11 Award, given to the top SID departments in FBS, four times during the eight years of the award’s existence.   Dave shared this bit of personal news on Friday:

“Many of you who know me know that for the last decade or so, I’ve been dealing with some circulation issues in my left leg; the swelling at times makes it look like a Hawaiian banyan tree.  Recently, it developed some complications and it’s being treated accordingly (I’ll be fine); but its condition at present is enough to make travel especially hard, thus ending a personal streak I have taken great pride in: starting on Nov. 19, 1983, I have attended and worked every Colorado football game —all 410, beginning with a 38-21 win over Kansas State to close the ’83 season up to last Saturday’s Arizona game.

(I wasn’t overly keen on doing this, but our CUBuffs.com contributing editor, Neill Woelk, told me it was necessary to write something, or he’d write a news story and post it himself, with made-up quotes from me — though he said “I’d be surprised at what I said.”)

Spotlight on the Outland Trophy: Washington State’s Cody O’Connell Reply

Washington State’s senior offensive guard Cody O’Connell was an Outland Trophy finalist in 2016. Below are links to two stories on him.

38 Armed Forces Merit Award nominations announced Reply

Fort Worth, Texas  A total of six collegiate players, one college president, 14 college coaches, 12 college and university administrators, two college referees and three programs have been nominated for the 2017 Armed Forces Merit Award presented by the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA).

Coordinated by the staff at the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, the Armed Forces Merit Award was created in June 2012 “to honor an individual and/or a group with a military background and/or involvement that has an impact within the realm of college football.”

With 38 nominations to be considered, the award’s selection committee of five FWAA members and two representatives from the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl will determine the 2017 recipient. Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Executive Director Brant Ringler and FWAA President David Jones of the PA Media Group (Downingtown, Pa.) will make the announcement the week of Nov. 5.

Steven Rhodes, a defensive lineman at Middle Tennessee State University and four-year letterman for the Blue Raiders, was the 2016 recipient. Nate Boyer of the University of Texas was the initial recipient in 2012. Other honorees have been Brandon McCoy of the University of North Texas in 2013, Daniel Rodriguez from Clemson University in 2014 and Bret Robertson of Westminster College (Fulton, Mo.) in 2015.

Programs

  • Kyle Boyd, Sophomore fullback, Baylor University (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Ben Brickman, Junior wide receiver, Syracuse University (Marine Corps)
  • Rory Coleman, Senior defensive lineman, University of Central Florida (U. S. Army)
  • Christian Hill, Senior defensive lineman, Arizona State University (U. S. Air Force)
  • Damian Jackson, Freshman defensive lineman, University of Nebraska (U. S. Navy)
  • Jose Renderoskeiffer, Graduate linebacker, Fairleigh Dickinson University (U. S. Navy)
  • College Football Playoff
  • Dr. Chris Howard, President, Robert Morris University (U. S. Air Force)

Football Staff

  • Troy Calhoun, Head Coach, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Jake Campbell, Assistant Backfield, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Lt. Col. Robert Green, Cornerbacks, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Steed Lobotzke, Offensive Line, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Ben Miller, Running Backs/Special Teams Coordinator, United State Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Maj. Dylan Newman, Defensive Assistant/Senior Military Rep., United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • GySgt. Tim Owens, Assistant Director of Player Development, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • John Rudzinski, Secondary, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Steve Russ, Assistant Head Coach/Def. Coordinator/Defensive Backs, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Mike Thiessen, Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Jim Turner, Offensive Line Coach, Texas A&M University (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Mike Viti, Assistant Football Coach/Fullback, United States Military Academy (U. S. Army)
  • Maj. Ross Weaver, Assistant Offensive Line Coach, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Mick Yokitis, Wide Receivers, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Navy)

Football Support Staff

  • Jordan Simmons, Strength & Conditioning, Nevada (U. S. Army)
  • Rusty Whitt, Strength & Conditioning, Texas Tech University (U. S. Army)
  • College & University Administration
  • Col. Jon Aytes, Officer Representative, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Cmdr. H. Lamont Gourdine, Deputy Director of Athletics (Military), United States Naval Academy (U.S. Navy)
  • Cmdr. Kevin Haney, Faculty Representative, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Navy)
  • Brian Hill, Vice Director of Athletics, United State Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Jim Knowlton, Director of Athletics, United State Air Force Academy (U. S. Army)
  • Lance E. LeClere, Orthopedic Surgeon, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Navy)
  • LTC John Nawoichyk, Assistant AD/Military Operations, United States Military Academy (U. S. Army)
  • Capt. Scott Pyne, M.D., Team Physician, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Navy)
  • Steve Senn, Director of Recruiting and Player Personnel, United State Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Capt. Ryan Tully, Military Liaison, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Referees
  • Raymond Daniel, Official, Mid-American Conference (Army National Guard)
  • Steve Thielen, Official, Mid-American Conference (U. S. Army)

Fan Plan Championship Index for Oct. 9 Reply

DALLAS, TX – For the first time this season the Clemson Tigers are the favorites to play in the college football national championship game. The Tigers have a 50.24% chance to make the championship game, according to the Week 7 ratings of the Fan Plan Championship Index. Clemson is 6-0 at the halfway point of the season with wins over current No. 9 Auburn and No. 24 Virginia Tech already on its resume.

The FPCI rankings were sent into upheaval with the losses by last week’s third-ranked Michigan Wolverines and fifth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners over the weekend. With the Michigan loss, Penn State replaced the Wolverines as the Big Ten representative in the projected playoff field, as the Nittany Lions now have a 21.14% chance to make the national championship game and a 21.78% chance to win the Big Ten. The Oklahoma loss caused the Big 12 to tumble even further from the playoff field. The closest team from the Big 12 to the playoff field is now No. 11 TCU with a 1.17% chance to make the national championship game.

Georgia (20.69%) dropped from No. 1 to No. 4 overall, while Washington State (43.10%) moved up from No. 4 to No. 2. Georgia’s drop is being precipitated by the SEC having three teams in the Top 10 this week, including No. 8 Alabama (7.73%) and No. 9 Auburn (3.08%), along with an overall drop by the SEC in the conference rankings.

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 5 Notre Dame (19.03%). No. 6 Ohio State (17.42%), No. 7 Washington (10.08%), No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Auburn, and No. 10 Michigan State (2.25%).

WK 7 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Clemson 6-0 50.24% 22.15% $433.32
2 Washington State 6-0 43.10% 22.45% $371.74
3 Penn State 6-0 21.14% 21.78% $198.19
4 Georgia 6-0 20.69% 22.62% $193.97
5 Notre Dame 5-1 19.03% N/A $178.41
6 Ohio State 5-1 17.42% 23.25% $163.31
7 Washington 6-0 10.08% 25.87% $75.60
8 Alabama 6-0 7.73% 22.92% $77.30
9 Auburn 5-1 3.08% 17.49% $38.50
10 Michigan State 4-1 2.25% 11.84% $28.13
11 TCU 5-0 1.17% 22.08% $20.00
12 USC 5-1 0.88% 21.31% $20.00
13 Michigan 4-1 0.73% 5.45% $20.00
14 San Diego State 6-0 0.54% 24.93% $20.00
15 Georgia Tech 3-1 0.39% 10.47% $20.00
15 Wisconsin 6-0 0.39% 21.93% $20.00
17 Oklahoma 4-1 0.34% 18.04% $20.00
18 North Carolina State 5-1 0.29% 16.89% $20.00
19 Miami (FL) 4-0 0.24% 19.94% $20.00
20 Oklahoma State 4-1 0.10% 17.81% $20.00
21 Duke 4-2 0.05% 1.98% $20.00
21 Utah 4-1 0.05% 1.54% $20.00
21 Virginia Tech 5-1 0.05% 8.65% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

CONTENDERS SURGING, PRETENDERS FALLING BY THE WAYSIDE: The halfway point in the college football season gives us the first time the FPCI has indicated a team has a greater than 50% chance to make it to the national championship game. That designation is bestowed on the Clemson Tigers, which is also ranked No. 1 in the FPCI for the first time this season. Clemson enters the week with a 50.24% chance to play in the national championship game and a Fan Plan price of $433.32.

As one would expect, Week 7 also includes the fewest teams with a greater than zero percent chance to make the national championship game. This week there are just 23 teams that register in that metric, with the bottom three – Duke, Utah, and Virginia Tech – coming in at just a 0.05% chance to make the championship game.

CONFERENCE DECK SHUFFLED: For the first time this season, the SEC has fallen from the top spot in the FPCI conference rankings. Despite three teams in the Top 10, the SEC fell from No. 1 overall to No. 3. Those three SEC teams in the Top 10, however, account for all of the SEC teams with a chance to make it to the national championship game, according to the FPCI. That represents the fewest teams of any Power Five conference other than the Big 12, which also has just three teams remaining with a chance to make the national championship game.

The ACC and Pac-12 both moved up one spot in the FPCI conference rankings to No. 1 and No. 2, respectively. The ACC has six teams remaining with a chance to make the national championship game, with the No. 1 Clemson Tigers leading the way. The Pac-12 has four teams left. The Big Ten, with five teams left in the FPCI ratings, come in at No. 4 overall, with the American Athletic Conference at No. 5 and the Big 12 at No. 6.

BULLDOGS AND CRIMSON TIDE CONTINUE BATTLE FOR SEC SUPREMACY: After holding the top spot in the FPCI for two weeks, the Georgia Bulldogs fell to No. 4 after this week’s shakeup. And the Bulldogs’ advantage over their SEC counterparts also remains tenuous, with Alabama and Auburn also lurking in the FPCI Top 10. The Alabama Crimson Tide remain at No. 1 in the FPCI power rankings, a spot they have held for the entire season. Georgia comes in at No. 6 in the power rankings, while Auburn is at No. 15. In order for the Bulldogs to finish the season with a coveted playoff spot, they would have to beat Auburn in the regular season and likely Alabama as well in the SEC Championship Game.

Currently Georgia’s probability to play in the national championship game (20.69%) is considerably higher than Alabama’s 7.73%, despite the fact that Alabama is favored to win against Georgia by 8 points should they face each other in the SEC Championship Game. This is because Georgia has a key win against No. 5 Notre Dame (No. 7 power ranking) while Alabama hasn’t beaten a FPCI Top 25 team yet. Both teams will play current No. 9 Auburn in the regular season, and by that time, depending on the results, these percentages could swing drastically.

Below are the results and projected results for both Alabama and Georgia for the season. For the games not played yet, the probability to win is listed. Both teams are expected to win out. If that happens, these two teams will face each other in the SEC Championship Game, which the FPCI currently projects as an Alabama win.

Alabama Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Florida St                          W (24-7)             %

Sat, Sep 09         Fresno St                          W (41-10)           %

Sat, Sep 16         Colorado St                      W (41-23)           %

Sat, Sep 23         at Vanderbilt                   W (59-0)             %

Sat, Sep 30         Mississippi                       W (66-3)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at Texas A&M                  W (27-19)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Arkansas                           W (52-12)           99%

Sat, Oct 21         Tennessee                        W (44-6)             99%

Sat, Nov 04        LSU                                     W (40-3)             99%

Sat, Nov 11        at Mississippi St                   W (39-18)           95%

Sat, Nov 18        Mercer                              W (50-0)             99%

Sat, Nov 25        at (9) Auburn                   W (27-15)           82%

Georgia Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Appalachian St                W (31-10)           %

Sat, Sep 09         at (5) Notre Dame          W (20-19)           %

Sat, Sep 16         Samford                            W (42-14)           %

Sat, Sep 23         Mississippi St                   W (31-3)             %

Sat, Sep 30         at Tennessee                   W (41-0)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at Vanderbilt                   W (45-14)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Missouri                           W (52-9)             99%

Sat, Oct 28         at Florida                          W (34-10)           97%

Sat, Nov 04        South Carolina                W (29-3)             98%

Sat, Nov 11        at (9) Auburn                   W (19-15)           61%

Sat, Nov 18        Kentucky                           W (38-6)             99%

Sat, Nov 25        at Georgia Tech               W (29-19)           77%

WHY ARE THE IRISH SO HIGH?: The FPCI lists Notre Dame at No. 5 in this week’s ratings, much higher that the Fighting Irish are in any of the human polls this week. Because the FPCI is a projections-based metric, it looks at how the entire season is projected to play out and likes what it sees on the Notre Dame schedule for the rest of the season.

Notre Dame’s upcoming schedule includes three of its last six regular season games against FPCI Top 25 teams. That becomes five of six Top 25 teams based on the FPCI non-adjusted ratings. Further, the Fighting Irish are favored to win all of their remaining games, which would put them at 11-1 with only a one-point loss to Georgia. If that’s how the season plays out, it will be difficult to keep Notre Dame out of the Top 4, no matter what other teams are able to do the rest of the way.

Notre Dame Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Oct 21         (12) Southern Cal            W (36-27)           75%

Sat, Oct 28         (18) North Carolina St    W (42-27)           88%

Sat, Nov 04        Wake Forest                    W (38-22)           89%

Sat, Nov 11        at (16) Miami FL              W (35-30)           64%

Sat, Nov 18        Navy                                  W (44-22)           96%

Sat, Nov 25        at Stanford                       W (39-30)           75%

 

Kellner Computer Rankings for week of Oct. 8 Reply

The Cody Kellner Points Index (CKPI) gives each team a rating that is reflective of their strength of schedule and the success they had within it.  This is accomplished by using a least squares regression model which recalculates each formula until all ratings stabilize by use of simultaneous equations.  These characteristics are what make the CKPI known as an “advanced ratings system.”

The results from the previous season will be weighted at a decreasing rate as the current season progresses.  Margin of victory is considered in the CKPI ratings and evaluated based on how much a team dominated a game in terms of the number of points they scored in comparison to their opponent.

Individual statistics, upcoming games, injuries, conference affiliation, and location of games are not considered in the CKPI ratings.

Please note:  The CKPI is based on the past and should never be used as a method of prediction.

RANK SCHOOL RATING
1 ALABAMA 167.376
2 CLEMSON 160.431
3 PENN STATE 139.381
4 GEORGIA 135.629
5 WASHINGTON 130.675
6 WISCONSIN 119.971
7 OHIO STATE 115.457
8 WASHINGTON STATE 111.046
9 USC 108.617
10 MIAMI FL 101.151
11 MICHIGAN 93.633
12 TCU 92.523
13 VIRGINIA TECH 90.853
14 SAN DIEGO STATE 87.320
15 SOUTH FLORIDA 86.044
16 AUBURN 85.077
17 NOTRE DAME 84.855
18 UCF 77.422
19 OKLAHOMA 76.422
20 OKLAHOMA STATE 76.353
21 NC STATE 69.880
22 STANFORD 68.314
23 NAVY 67.440
24 FLORIDA 66.253
25 GEORGIA TECH 65.766
26 MICHIGAN STATE 62.142
27 KENTUCKY 57.341
28 IOWA 57.225
29 HOUSTON 55.592
30 WAKE FOREST 54.978
31 LOUISVILLE 52.893
32 LSU 51.849
33 UTAH 50.204
34 TEXAS A&M 47.207
35 OREGON 44.463
36 SOUTH CAROLINA 43.856
37 BOISE STATE 41.086
38 TEXAS TECH 40.614
39 MINNESOTA 38.076
40 MISSISSIPPI STATE 36.157
41 TROY 36.106
42 FLORIDA STATE 35.504
43 TENNESSEE 34.681
44 WESTERN MICHIGAN 34.453
45 TOLEDO 33.194
46 COLORADO 33.167
47 INDIANA 32.099
48 MEMPHIS 31.503
49 UCLA 31.070
50 COLORADO STATE 30.915
51 TEXAS 30.349
52 WEST VIRGINIA 30.179
53 PURDUE 30.037
54 VANDERBILT 29.907
55 DUKE 29.492
56 VIRGINIA 28.798
57 NEBRASKA 27.969
58 MARYLAND 27.249
59 SMU 19.430
60 CALIFORNIA 19.337
61 APPALACHIAN STATE 18.065
62 KANSAS STATE 16.506
63 ARIZONA 10.735
64 IOWA STATE 8.739
65 ARMY 8.436
66 SYRACUSE 8.241
67 MARSHALL 7.960
68 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 7.916
69 NORTHWESTERN 7.422
70 TULANE 7.052
71 NEW MEXICO 5.434
72 WYOMING 2.761
73 UTSA 1.733
74 TEMPLE 1.700
75 ARIZONA STATE 1.321
76 OHIO -0.847
77 WESTERN KENTUCKY -0.871
78 SOUTHERN MISS -1.755
79 MISSISSIPPI -2.297
80 BOSTON COLLEGE -3.237
81 ARKANSAS STATE -5.625
82 ARKANSAS -5.949
83 FRESNO STATE -7.192
84 PITTSBURGH -7.540
85 UTAH STATE -10.913
86 ILLINOIS -11.596
87 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -15.419
88 LOUISIANA TECH -15.529
89 NORTH TEXAS -16.901
90 AKRON -17.098
91 AIR FORCE -18.179
92 ULM -20.878
93 UNLV -22.430
94 MIDDLE TENN STATE -22.982
95 NORTH CAROLINA -26.348
96 EASTERN MICHIGAN -27.263
97 IDAHO -29.864
98 ULL -32.434
99 FLORIDA INTL -33.065
100 RUTGERS -33.511
101 TULSA -34.626
102 OLD DOMINION -34.750
103 BUFFALO -35.134
104 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -35.316
105 OREGON STATE -38.771
106 CINCINNATI -41.649
107 GEORGIA STATE -42.097
108 NEW MEXICO STATE -42.798
109 BYU -43.070
110 MISSOURI -47.707
111 MIAMI OH -50.318
112 HAWAII -50.491
113 SOUTH ALABAMA -57.587
114 BAYLOR -61.239
115 KANSAS -66.500
116 UAB -68.844
117 NEVADA -68.969
118 BALL STATE -68.985
119 CONNECTICUT -70.344
120 EAST CAROLINA -70.371
121 GEORGIA SOUTHERN -80.480
122 BOWLING GREEN -86.349
123 RICE -89.060
124 KENT -93.880
125 COASTAL CAROLINA -95.150
126 TEXAS STATE -95.348
127 MASSACHUSETTS -99.234
128 SAN JOSE STATE -100.630
129 UTEP -115.124
130 CHARLOTTE -135.591

Fan Plan Championship Index for Oct. 1

DALLAS, TX The Georgia Bulldogs, fresh off of an impressive 41-0 road victory over Tennessee, strengthened its hold on the No. 1 overall spot in the Week 6 Fan Plan Championship Index. The Bulldogs improved more than 10 percentage points in their chances to make the national championship game, entering Week 6 of the season with a 42.27% chance, the highest percentage of any team thus far this season. The Bulldogs also lead all teams with a 52.59% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Clemson and Michigan remain and Nos. 2 and 3 this week, while a newcomer enters the playoff forecast at the No. 4 spot. Washington State’s upset win over USC vaulted the Cougars into the fourth spot with a 19.18% chance to make the championship game, moving Oklahoma to the No. 5 spot and outside of the playoff race were it to end today.

A number of non-Power 5 teams are also lurking in the FPCI, with Notre Dame holding the highest spot among those clubs at No. 7 with an 11.74% chance to play in the national championship game. Also in the rankings this week from outside the Power 5 conferences are No. 14 Central Florida (1.61%), No. 20 San Diego State (0.29%), and Nos. 24 South Florida and Navy (both 0.10%).

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 6 Penn State (16.63%). No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 8 Alabama (10.08%), No. 9 Ohio State (9.00%), and No. 10 TCU (8.61%).

WK 6 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Georgia 5-0 42.27% 22.41% $364.58
2 Clemson 5-0 25.49% 22.42% $238.97
3 Michigan 4-0 20.55% 12.41% $192.66
4 Washington State 5-0 19.18% 15.70% $179.81
5 Oklahoma 4-0 18.69% 25.43% $175.22
6 Penn State 5-0 16.63% 21.19% $155.91
7 Notre Dame 4-1 11.74% N/A $88.05
8 Alabama 5-0 10.08% 23.24% $75.60
9 Ohio State 4-1 9.00% 22.56% $90.00
10 TCU 4-0 8.61% 23.46% $86.10
11 Wisconsin 4-0 4.65% 20.74% $58.13
12 Auburn 4-1 3.77% 17.25% $47.13
13 Washington 5-0 1.96% 25.20% $24.50
14 Central Florida 3-0 1.61% 25.06% $20.13
15 Georgia Tech 3-1 1.22% 12.23% $20.00
16 USC 4-1 0.88% 22.93% $20.00
17 Maryland 3-1 0.83% 4.18% $20.00
18 Oklahoma State 4-1 0.73% 19.56% $20.00
19 Michigan State 3-1 0.39% 5.98% $20.00
20 Florida State 1-2 0.29% 7.79% $20.00
20 San Diego State 5-0 0.29% 23.86% $20.00
22 Oregon 4-1 0.24% 12.97 $20.00
23 Virginia Tech 4-1 0.15% 8.09% $20.00
24 Miami (FL) 3-0 0.10% 17.02% $20.00
24 Navy 4-0 0.10% 16.57% $20.00
24 South Florida 5-0 0.10 20.03% $20.00
24 Wake Forest 4-1 0.10% 3.66% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

BULLDOGS CONTINUE TO CLIMB: The Georgia Bulldogs’ 42.27% chance to make the national championship game, combined with their 52.59% chance to make the four-team playoff field, are impressive numbers for such an early point in the college football season. Certainly it is a byproduct of Georgia’s impressive play on the field. However, it can also be seen as a commentary on the rest of Georgia’s schedule, including what looks to be a weaker-than-normal SEC East Division.

The SEC East is one of just three Power 5 divisions that has only one team in the Top 25 of the FPCI. The others are the Big Ten West and Pac-12 South. Georgia’s remaining SEC East foes have a combined 5-7 conference record, which is buoyed dramatically by Florida’s undefeated but not-that-impressive 3-0 SEC mark. The Bulldogs do not have the highest percent chance to win the SEC, however – that still belongs to Alabama at 23.24% — but the Bulldogs’ higher percent chance to make the playoffs and the national championship game is a nod to Alabama’s more difficult road to Atlanta going through the SEC West.

MORE EXCITEMENT LATE NIGHT IN THE PAC-12: #pac12afterdark isn’t just a slick marketing hashtag. When the sun goes down out west, crazy occurrences and back-and-forth scoring shootouts often occur. Already this season we’ve seen Boise State and Washington State go into triple overtime before the Cougars pulled out a 47-44 victory. We also saw Arizona State outlasting and stunning the upstart Oregon Ducks and Utah needing a late fourth quarter fumble recovery to fend off upset-minded Arizona on Friday night in the desert in Week 4.

Week 5 was no exception, as the Washington State Cougars proved they’ve finally developed a defense to go along with their high-powered offense. The Cougars snapped a 15-game losing streak against ranked opponents, the Power 5’s longest such losing streak, when they defeated USC, 30-27. The win vaulted Washington State all the way to the No. 4 position in this week’s FPCI. At 5-0, the Cougars have a 19.18% chance to make the championship game but could have been heading into a hornet’s nest on Saturday when they travel to Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks. However, the Ducks lost their starting quarterback to a broken collar bone, severely limiting Oregon’s chances and giving Washington State’s magical season that much more of a boost as they enter the middle of the regular season schedule.

BIG 12 PLUMMETING: The Big 12 has missed out on the College Football Playoff two of the three years the playoffs have been in existence, and the 2017 season looks to be headed down the same road. Unless an undefeated Oklahoma can make it through the regular season and the conference championship game unscathed, it appears that the conference’s overall strength could keep it on the outside looking in. This week the Sooners are at No. 5 in the FPCI with an 18.69% chance to make the national championship game, still on the outside of the four-team group but definitely within striking distance. The Sooners are also favored in all of their remaining regular season games except for their Bedlam Series matchup in Stillwater against Oklahoma State, which the FPCI has at a pick ’em with each team owning a 50% chance to win the game.

Looking at the FPCI’s overall conference standings, the Big 12 has actually dropped behind the American Athletic Conference, a non-Power 5 league, in the pecking order. The SEC has been No. 1 all season and remains that way, followed by the ACC, which is up from No. 3 last week. The ACC traded spots with the Pac-12, which is No. 3 this week, with the Big Ten coming in at No. 4.

The American Athletic has three teams in this week’s FPCI Top 25 – No. 14 Central Florida and Nos. 24 South Florida and Navy. The Big 12 also has three teams ranked in the FPCI Top 25 with No. 5 Oklahoma, No. 10 TCU, and No. 18 Oklahoma State.

CRASHING THE PARTY: The American Athletic Conference’s No. 5 conference ranking marks the first time this season that a non-Power 5 conference is in the top five of the conference rankings. And while it is still extremely unlikely that a team from the American Athletic Conference or any other non-Power 5 league will break the glass ceiling and make the playoff field, there is an interesting team lurking that is not part of the Power 5, and that is Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish come in at No. 7 in the FPCI this week with a 4-1 overall record and an 11.74% chance to make the national championship game.

As an independent, Notre Dame does not play in a conference and, thus, does not have the same 13th data point that other Power 5 conference champions have. However, the Irish are a national brand and, already at No. 7, there are enough marquee games on their schedule for them to be in the fold if they can win out. Currently the FPCI has Notre Dame favored in all of their remaining games but projects the Irish to have a 9-3 overall record by season’s end. Notre Dame has an 85% chance to beat North Carolina this weekend and then a 62% chance to beat USC the following week. The Irish’s other marquee games come on November 11 at Miami (60% chance to win) and at Stanford in the regular season finale (63% chance to win).

EASIEST ROADS TO CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES: The route to the College Football Playoff begins with the conference championship games, and for some the path to those games is easier to navigate than for other thanks to the schedule maker. When assessing a team’s chances to make the national championship game, one important factor continues to be the remaining schedule and how many quality opponents are left for a team to play. For example, in the SEC East, Georgia appears to have smooth sailing to the SEC Championship Game, especially if it can pick up a win over Florida in the World’s Largest Cocktail Party. The Bulldogs’ remaining schedule includes a number of weaker teams in the division, including upcoming games against Vanderbilt (3-2) and Missouri (1-3) before taking on Florida. According to the FPCI, the only real test left for the Bulldogs in the regular season is a November 11 matchup at Auburn, which Georgia has a 56% chance to win. By that time the Bulldogs may have already wrapped up the SEC East, though, and the matchup would essentially be meaningless as it relates to the conference championship race.

Another team that appears to have smooth sailing to its conference championship game is Clemson. The Tigers have already faced their biggest threats of the regular season in Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech and we’re still in September. Of the seven games remaining on Clemson’s schedule, the lowest percentage to win comes against Georgia Tech on October 28. In that game, Clemson has an 81% chance to win. There are two other games in which the Tigers have just an 82% chance to win – at North Carolina State and against Florida State. All of the remaining games are near or above 90% as it relates to Clemson’s chances for victory.

A similar path is laid out for Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. The Badgers, currently at 4-0, are favored to win all of the remaining games according to the FPCI, with the lowest percent chance to win coming in their home game against Michigan on November 18. In that game the Badgers have a 61% chance to win. The next lowest percentage on Wisconsin’s remaining schedule is 71% at Minnesota and 77% chance to win at Indiana and against Iowa.

The clearest path to the conference championship game in the Pac-12 is Washington. The Huskies have a 64% chance to win at Stanford on November 10, according to the FPCI. That’s the lowest percentage left on the schedule, with their home game against Oregon at a 70% chance to win and their season finale against Washington State coming in at a 74% chance to win.