NFF’s Hatchell honored; Texas-OU luncheon hits 50 Reply

 

A reception was held this week in Dallas honoring Steve Hatchell, National Football Foundation President and CEO. Hatchell is being inducted into the Colorado University Athletic Hall of Fame on Nov. 9 . Hatchell was involved in sports administration at Colorado, his Alma Mater. Hatchell spoke to the crowd. He was honored with a cake. (Photos by Melissa Macatee)

This was a poster from the Annual Luncheon that the Cotton Bowl sponsored before the most recent Red River Showdown between Oklahoma and Texas. The luncheon has been held in Dallas for a half century when writers, broadcasters, sponsor and team officials gather the day before the game at the Cotton Bowl Stadium.

 

 

 

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Kellner Computer Rankings for week of Oct. 15 Reply

The Cody Kellner Points Index gives each team a rating that is reflective of their strength of schedule and the success they had within it.  Results from last season are considered in the ratings, but diminish as a factor as the current season progresses.  Margin of victory is also considered in the ratings.

RANK SCHOOL RATING
1 ALABAMA 175.553
2 PENN STATE 140.041
3 GEORGIA 136.796
4 CLEMSON 133.506
5 OHIO STATE 126.237
6 WISCONSIN 121.988
7 USC 112.375
8 MIAMI FL 109.970
9 TCU 109.667
10 WASHINGTON 105.421
11 MICHIGAN 99.088
12 SOUTH FLORIDA 92.054
13 VIRGINIA TECH 89.426
14 UCF 85.635
15 OKLAHOMA STATE 84.360
16 NC STATE 84.353
17 NOTRE DAME 84.191
18 STANFORD 82.938
19 WASHINGTON STATE 82.542
20 OKLAHOMA 80.419
21 MICHIGAN STATE 73.573
22 AUBURN 71.178
23 SAN DIEGO STATE 67.989
24 LSU 63.976
25 TEXAS A&M 59.958
26 IOWA 59.012
27 SOUTH CAROLINA 58.998
28 KENTUCKY 56.004
29 BOISE STATE 55.820
30 WAKE FOREST 55.251
31 FLORIDA 50.620
32 MISSISSIPPI STATE 50.607
33 GEORGIA TECH 50.101
34 NAVY 49.506
35 FLORIDA STATE 48.266
36 CALIFORNIA 45.151
37 TOLEDO 44.555
38 MEMPHIS 44.379
39 UTAH 42.693
40 VIRGINIA 41.758
41 WEST VIRGINIA 40.018
42 LOUISVILLE 37.512
43 HOUSTON 35.369
44 COLORADO 35.359
45 COLORADO STATE 34.490
46 WESTERN MICHIGAN 34.265
47 OREGON 33.909
48 TEXAS TECH 29.586
49 SYRACUSE 27.803
50 MARSHALL 27.741
51 APPALACHIAN STATE 25.750
52 INDIANA 24.789
53 ARIZONA 24.510
54 ARIZONA STATE 23.557
55 IOWA STATE 21.838
56 DUKE 21.522
57 TEXAS 21.373
58 PURDUE 21.313
59 SMU 20.954
60 NORTHWESTERN 19.679
61 MINNESOTA 19.655
62 UCLA 18.628
63 NEBRASKA 17.904
64 TENNESSEE 17.769
65 FRESNO STATE 16.350
66 TROY 16.294
67 ARMY 15.195
68 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 15.093
69 MISSISSIPPI 14.921
70 VANDERBILT 12.962
71 MARYLAND 12.782
72 WYOMING 9.746
73 BOSTON COLLEGE 9.382
74 SOUTHERN MISS 6.968
75 OHIO 3.290
76 WESTERN KENTUCKY 2.140
77 ARKANSAS STATE 1.377
78 KANSAS STATE 0.108
79 NORTH TEXAS -4.047
80 ARKANSAS -7.135
81 TULANE -9.895
82 AIR FORCE -11.192
83 UTSA -11.794
84 LOUISIANA TECH -12.340
85 TEMPLE -15.622
86 TULSA -16.042
87 FLORIDA INTL -17.106
88 PITTSBURGH -17.264
89 AKRON -17.986
90 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -18.923
91 NEW MEXICO -19.741
92 UTAH STATE -20.375
93 ULL -21.922
94 RUTGERS -21.984
95 ILLINOIS -26.213
96 GEORGIA STATE -28.354
97 NEW MEXICO STATE -31.995
98 UNLV -32.960
99 ULM -33.317
100 SOUTH ALABAMA -33.508
101 EASTERN MICHIGAN -35.528
102 IDAHO -38.783
103 MIDDLE TENN STATE -40.602
104 BUFFALO -41.237
105 NORTH CAROLINA -41.436
106 HAWAII -42.173
107 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -43.875
108 UAB -47.542
109 OREGON STATE -47.747
110 CINCINNATI -47.901
111 CONNECTICUT -49.979
112 MISSOURI -53.879
113 BYU -54.475
114 OLD DOMINION -57.357
115 MIAMI OH -63.034
116 BALL STATE -68.759
117 BAYLOR -70.470
118 NEVADA -73.131
119 EAST CAROLINA -77.224
120 KENT -81.784
121 KANSAS -84.282
122 RICE -89.802
123 GEORGIA SOUTHERN -92.394
124 BOWLING GREEN -94.270
125 MASSACHUSETTS -102.136
126 COASTAL CAROLINA -104.830
127 TEXAS STATE -106.724
128 SAN JOSE STATE -109.708
129 UTEP -126.250
130 CHARLOTTE -140.839

 

Plati’s streak coming to an end at 410 football games Reply

Dave Plati, Colorado’s associate athletic director/sports information, is a long-time FWAA member. Under his leadership. Colorado has claimed an FWAA Super 11 Award, given to the top SID departments in FBS, four times during the eight years of the award’s existence.   Dave shared this bit of personal news on Friday:

“Many of you who know me know that for the last decade or so, I’ve been dealing with some circulation issues in my left leg; the swelling at times makes it look like a Hawaiian banyan tree.  Recently, it developed some complications and it’s being treated accordingly (I’ll be fine); but its condition at present is enough to make travel especially hard, thus ending a personal streak I have taken great pride in: starting on Nov. 19, 1983, I have attended and worked every Colorado football game —all 410, beginning with a 38-21 win over Kansas State to close the ’83 season up to last Saturday’s Arizona game.

(I wasn’t overly keen on doing this, but our CUBuffs.com contributing editor, Neill Woelk, told me it was necessary to write something, or he’d write a news story and post it himself, with made-up quotes from me — though he said “I’d be surprised at what I said.”)

Spotlight on the Outland Trophy: Washington State’s Cody O’Connell Reply

Washington State’s senior offensive guard Cody O’Connell was an Outland Trophy finalist in 2016. Below are links to two stories on him.

38 Armed Forces Merit Award nominations announced Reply

Fort Worth, Texas  A total of six collegiate players, one college president, 14 college coaches, 12 college and university administrators, two college referees and three programs have been nominated for the 2017 Armed Forces Merit Award presented by the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA).

Coordinated by the staff at the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, the Armed Forces Merit Award was created in June 2012 “to honor an individual and/or a group with a military background and/or involvement that has an impact within the realm of college football.”

With 38 nominations to be considered, the award’s selection committee of five FWAA members and two representatives from the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl will determine the 2017 recipient. Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Executive Director Brant Ringler and FWAA President David Jones of the PA Media Group (Downingtown, Pa.) will make the announcement the week of Nov. 5.

Steven Rhodes, a defensive lineman at Middle Tennessee State University and four-year letterman for the Blue Raiders, was the 2016 recipient. Nate Boyer of the University of Texas was the initial recipient in 2012. Other honorees have been Brandon McCoy of the University of North Texas in 2013, Daniel Rodriguez from Clemson University in 2014 and Bret Robertson of Westminster College (Fulton, Mo.) in 2015.

Programs

  • Kyle Boyd, Sophomore fullback, Baylor University (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Ben Brickman, Junior wide receiver, Syracuse University (Marine Corps)
  • Rory Coleman, Senior defensive lineman, University of Central Florida (U. S. Army)
  • Christian Hill, Senior defensive lineman, Arizona State University (U. S. Air Force)
  • Damian Jackson, Freshman defensive lineman, University of Nebraska (U. S. Navy)
  • Jose Renderoskeiffer, Graduate linebacker, Fairleigh Dickinson University (U. S. Navy)
  • College Football Playoff
  • Dr. Chris Howard, President, Robert Morris University (U. S. Air Force)

Football Staff

  • Troy Calhoun, Head Coach, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Jake Campbell, Assistant Backfield, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Lt. Col. Robert Green, Cornerbacks, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Steed Lobotzke, Offensive Line, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Ben Miller, Running Backs/Special Teams Coordinator, United State Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Maj. Dylan Newman, Defensive Assistant/Senior Military Rep., United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • GySgt. Tim Owens, Assistant Director of Player Development, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • John Rudzinski, Secondary, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Steve Russ, Assistant Head Coach/Def. Coordinator/Defensive Backs, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Mike Thiessen, Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Jim Turner, Offensive Line Coach, Texas A&M University (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Mike Viti, Assistant Football Coach/Fullback, United States Military Academy (U. S. Army)
  • Maj. Ross Weaver, Assistant Offensive Line Coach, United States Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Mick Yokitis, Wide Receivers, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Navy)

Football Support Staff

  • Jordan Simmons, Strength & Conditioning, Nevada (U. S. Army)
  • Rusty Whitt, Strength & Conditioning, Texas Tech University (U. S. Army)
  • College & University Administration
  • Col. Jon Aytes, Officer Representative, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Cmdr. H. Lamont Gourdine, Deputy Director of Athletics (Military), United States Naval Academy (U.S. Navy)
  • Cmdr. Kevin Haney, Faculty Representative, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Navy)
  • Brian Hill, Vice Director of Athletics, United State Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Jim Knowlton, Director of Athletics, United State Air Force Academy (U. S. Army)
  • Lance E. LeClere, Orthopedic Surgeon, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Navy)
  • LTC John Nawoichyk, Assistant AD/Military Operations, United States Military Academy (U. S. Army)
  • Capt. Scott Pyne, M.D., Team Physician, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Navy)
  • Steve Senn, Director of Recruiting and Player Personnel, United State Air Force Academy (U. S. Air Force)
  • Capt. Ryan Tully, Military Liaison, United States Naval Academy (U. S. Marine Corps)
  • Referees
  • Raymond Daniel, Official, Mid-American Conference (Army National Guard)
  • Steve Thielen, Official, Mid-American Conference (U. S. Army)

Fan Plan Championship Index for Oct. 9 Reply

DALLAS, TX – For the first time this season the Clemson Tigers are the favorites to play in the college football national championship game. The Tigers have a 50.24% chance to make the championship game, according to the Week 7 ratings of the Fan Plan Championship Index. Clemson is 6-0 at the halfway point of the season with wins over current No. 9 Auburn and No. 24 Virginia Tech already on its resume.

The FPCI rankings were sent into upheaval with the losses by last week’s third-ranked Michigan Wolverines and fifth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners over the weekend. With the Michigan loss, Penn State replaced the Wolverines as the Big Ten representative in the projected playoff field, as the Nittany Lions now have a 21.14% chance to make the national championship game and a 21.78% chance to win the Big Ten. The Oklahoma loss caused the Big 12 to tumble even further from the playoff field. The closest team from the Big 12 to the playoff field is now No. 11 TCU with a 1.17% chance to make the national championship game.

Georgia (20.69%) dropped from No. 1 to No. 4 overall, while Washington State (43.10%) moved up from No. 4 to No. 2. Georgia’s drop is being precipitated by the SEC having three teams in the Top 10 this week, including No. 8 Alabama (7.73%) and No. 9 Auburn (3.08%), along with an overall drop by the SEC in the conference rankings.

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 5 Notre Dame (19.03%). No. 6 Ohio State (17.42%), No. 7 Washington (10.08%), No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Auburn, and No. 10 Michigan State (2.25%).

WK 7 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Clemson 6-0 50.24% 22.15% $433.32
2 Washington State 6-0 43.10% 22.45% $371.74
3 Penn State 6-0 21.14% 21.78% $198.19
4 Georgia 6-0 20.69% 22.62% $193.97
5 Notre Dame 5-1 19.03% N/A $178.41
6 Ohio State 5-1 17.42% 23.25% $163.31
7 Washington 6-0 10.08% 25.87% $75.60
8 Alabama 6-0 7.73% 22.92% $77.30
9 Auburn 5-1 3.08% 17.49% $38.50
10 Michigan State 4-1 2.25% 11.84% $28.13
11 TCU 5-0 1.17% 22.08% $20.00
12 USC 5-1 0.88% 21.31% $20.00
13 Michigan 4-1 0.73% 5.45% $20.00
14 San Diego State 6-0 0.54% 24.93% $20.00
15 Georgia Tech 3-1 0.39% 10.47% $20.00
15 Wisconsin 6-0 0.39% 21.93% $20.00
17 Oklahoma 4-1 0.34% 18.04% $20.00
18 North Carolina State 5-1 0.29% 16.89% $20.00
19 Miami (FL) 4-0 0.24% 19.94% $20.00
20 Oklahoma State 4-1 0.10% 17.81% $20.00
21 Duke 4-2 0.05% 1.98% $20.00
21 Utah 4-1 0.05% 1.54% $20.00
21 Virginia Tech 5-1 0.05% 8.65% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

CONTENDERS SURGING, PRETENDERS FALLING BY THE WAYSIDE: The halfway point in the college football season gives us the first time the FPCI has indicated a team has a greater than 50% chance to make it to the national championship game. That designation is bestowed on the Clemson Tigers, which is also ranked No. 1 in the FPCI for the first time this season. Clemson enters the week with a 50.24% chance to play in the national championship game and a Fan Plan price of $433.32.

As one would expect, Week 7 also includes the fewest teams with a greater than zero percent chance to make the national championship game. This week there are just 23 teams that register in that metric, with the bottom three – Duke, Utah, and Virginia Tech – coming in at just a 0.05% chance to make the championship game.

CONFERENCE DECK SHUFFLED: For the first time this season, the SEC has fallen from the top spot in the FPCI conference rankings. Despite three teams in the Top 10, the SEC fell from No. 1 overall to No. 3. Those three SEC teams in the Top 10, however, account for all of the SEC teams with a chance to make it to the national championship game, according to the FPCI. That represents the fewest teams of any Power Five conference other than the Big 12, which also has just three teams remaining with a chance to make the national championship game.

The ACC and Pac-12 both moved up one spot in the FPCI conference rankings to No. 1 and No. 2, respectively. The ACC has six teams remaining with a chance to make the national championship game, with the No. 1 Clemson Tigers leading the way. The Pac-12 has four teams left. The Big Ten, with five teams left in the FPCI ratings, come in at No. 4 overall, with the American Athletic Conference at No. 5 and the Big 12 at No. 6.

BULLDOGS AND CRIMSON TIDE CONTINUE BATTLE FOR SEC SUPREMACY: After holding the top spot in the FPCI for two weeks, the Georgia Bulldogs fell to No. 4 after this week’s shakeup. And the Bulldogs’ advantage over their SEC counterparts also remains tenuous, with Alabama and Auburn also lurking in the FPCI Top 10. The Alabama Crimson Tide remain at No. 1 in the FPCI power rankings, a spot they have held for the entire season. Georgia comes in at No. 6 in the power rankings, while Auburn is at No. 15. In order for the Bulldogs to finish the season with a coveted playoff spot, they would have to beat Auburn in the regular season and likely Alabama as well in the SEC Championship Game.

Currently Georgia’s probability to play in the national championship game (20.69%) is considerably higher than Alabama’s 7.73%, despite the fact that Alabama is favored to win against Georgia by 8 points should they face each other in the SEC Championship Game. This is because Georgia has a key win against No. 5 Notre Dame (No. 7 power ranking) while Alabama hasn’t beaten a FPCI Top 25 team yet. Both teams will play current No. 9 Auburn in the regular season, and by that time, depending on the results, these percentages could swing drastically.

Below are the results and projected results for both Alabama and Georgia for the season. For the games not played yet, the probability to win is listed. Both teams are expected to win out. If that happens, these two teams will face each other in the SEC Championship Game, which the FPCI currently projects as an Alabama win.

Alabama Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Florida St                          W (24-7)             %

Sat, Sep 09         Fresno St                          W (41-10)           %

Sat, Sep 16         Colorado St                      W (41-23)           %

Sat, Sep 23         at Vanderbilt                   W (59-0)             %

Sat, Sep 30         Mississippi                       W (66-3)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at Texas A&M                  W (27-19)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Arkansas                           W (52-12)           99%

Sat, Oct 21         Tennessee                        W (44-6)             99%

Sat, Nov 04        LSU                                     W (40-3)             99%

Sat, Nov 11        at Mississippi St                   W (39-18)           95%

Sat, Nov 18        Mercer                              W (50-0)             99%

Sat, Nov 25        at (9) Auburn                   W (27-15)           82%

Georgia Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Appalachian St                W (31-10)           %

Sat, Sep 09         at (5) Notre Dame          W (20-19)           %

Sat, Sep 16         Samford                            W (42-14)           %

Sat, Sep 23         Mississippi St                   W (31-3)             %

Sat, Sep 30         at Tennessee                   W (41-0)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at Vanderbilt                   W (45-14)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Missouri                           W (52-9)             99%

Sat, Oct 28         at Florida                          W (34-10)           97%

Sat, Nov 04        South Carolina                W (29-3)             98%

Sat, Nov 11        at (9) Auburn                   W (19-15)           61%

Sat, Nov 18        Kentucky                           W (38-6)             99%

Sat, Nov 25        at Georgia Tech               W (29-19)           77%

WHY ARE THE IRISH SO HIGH?: The FPCI lists Notre Dame at No. 5 in this week’s ratings, much higher that the Fighting Irish are in any of the human polls this week. Because the FPCI is a projections-based metric, it looks at how the entire season is projected to play out and likes what it sees on the Notre Dame schedule for the rest of the season.

Notre Dame’s upcoming schedule includes three of its last six regular season games against FPCI Top 25 teams. That becomes five of six Top 25 teams based on the FPCI non-adjusted ratings. Further, the Fighting Irish are favored to win all of their remaining games, which would put them at 11-1 with only a one-point loss to Georgia. If that’s how the season plays out, it will be difficult to keep Notre Dame out of the Top 4, no matter what other teams are able to do the rest of the way.

Notre Dame Projected Results

Date                    Opponent                          Result                  Odds

Sat, Oct 21         (12) Southern Cal            W (36-27)           75%

Sat, Oct 28         (18) North Carolina St    W (42-27)           88%

Sat, Nov 04        Wake Forest                    W (38-22)           89%

Sat, Nov 11        at (16) Miami FL              W (35-30)           64%

Sat, Nov 18        Navy                                  W (44-22)           96%

Sat, Nov 25        at Stanford                       W (39-30)           75%

 

Kellner Computer Rankings for week of Oct. 8 Reply

The Cody Kellner Points Index (CKPI) gives each team a rating that is reflective of their strength of schedule and the success they had within it.  This is accomplished by using a least squares regression model which recalculates each formula until all ratings stabilize by use of simultaneous equations.  These characteristics are what make the CKPI known as an “advanced ratings system.”

The results from the previous season will be weighted at a decreasing rate as the current season progresses.  Margin of victory is considered in the CKPI ratings and evaluated based on how much a team dominated a game in terms of the number of points they scored in comparison to their opponent.

Individual statistics, upcoming games, injuries, conference affiliation, and location of games are not considered in the CKPI ratings.

Please note:  The CKPI is based on the past and should never be used as a method of prediction.

RANK SCHOOL RATING
1 ALABAMA 167.376
2 CLEMSON 160.431
3 PENN STATE 139.381
4 GEORGIA 135.629
5 WASHINGTON 130.675
6 WISCONSIN 119.971
7 OHIO STATE 115.457
8 WASHINGTON STATE 111.046
9 USC 108.617
10 MIAMI FL 101.151
11 MICHIGAN 93.633
12 TCU 92.523
13 VIRGINIA TECH 90.853
14 SAN DIEGO STATE 87.320
15 SOUTH FLORIDA 86.044
16 AUBURN 85.077
17 NOTRE DAME 84.855
18 UCF 77.422
19 OKLAHOMA 76.422
20 OKLAHOMA STATE 76.353
21 NC STATE 69.880
22 STANFORD 68.314
23 NAVY 67.440
24 FLORIDA 66.253
25 GEORGIA TECH 65.766
26 MICHIGAN STATE 62.142
27 KENTUCKY 57.341
28 IOWA 57.225
29 HOUSTON 55.592
30 WAKE FOREST 54.978
31 LOUISVILLE 52.893
32 LSU 51.849
33 UTAH 50.204
34 TEXAS A&M 47.207
35 OREGON 44.463
36 SOUTH CAROLINA 43.856
37 BOISE STATE 41.086
38 TEXAS TECH 40.614
39 MINNESOTA 38.076
40 MISSISSIPPI STATE 36.157
41 TROY 36.106
42 FLORIDA STATE 35.504
43 TENNESSEE 34.681
44 WESTERN MICHIGAN 34.453
45 TOLEDO 33.194
46 COLORADO 33.167
47 INDIANA 32.099
48 MEMPHIS 31.503
49 UCLA 31.070
50 COLORADO STATE 30.915
51 TEXAS 30.349
52 WEST VIRGINIA 30.179
53 PURDUE 30.037
54 VANDERBILT 29.907
55 DUKE 29.492
56 VIRGINIA 28.798
57 NEBRASKA 27.969
58 MARYLAND 27.249
59 SMU 19.430
60 CALIFORNIA 19.337
61 APPALACHIAN STATE 18.065
62 KANSAS STATE 16.506
63 ARIZONA 10.735
64 IOWA STATE 8.739
65 ARMY 8.436
66 SYRACUSE 8.241
67 MARSHALL 7.960
68 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 7.916
69 NORTHWESTERN 7.422
70 TULANE 7.052
71 NEW MEXICO 5.434
72 WYOMING 2.761
73 UTSA 1.733
74 TEMPLE 1.700
75 ARIZONA STATE 1.321
76 OHIO -0.847
77 WESTERN KENTUCKY -0.871
78 SOUTHERN MISS -1.755
79 MISSISSIPPI -2.297
80 BOSTON COLLEGE -3.237
81 ARKANSAS STATE -5.625
82 ARKANSAS -5.949
83 FRESNO STATE -7.192
84 PITTSBURGH -7.540
85 UTAH STATE -10.913
86 ILLINOIS -11.596
87 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -15.419
88 LOUISIANA TECH -15.529
89 NORTH TEXAS -16.901
90 AKRON -17.098
91 AIR FORCE -18.179
92 ULM -20.878
93 UNLV -22.430
94 MIDDLE TENN STATE -22.982
95 NORTH CAROLINA -26.348
96 EASTERN MICHIGAN -27.263
97 IDAHO -29.864
98 ULL -32.434
99 FLORIDA INTL -33.065
100 RUTGERS -33.511
101 TULSA -34.626
102 OLD DOMINION -34.750
103 BUFFALO -35.134
104 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -35.316
105 OREGON STATE -38.771
106 CINCINNATI -41.649
107 GEORGIA STATE -42.097
108 NEW MEXICO STATE -42.798
109 BYU -43.070
110 MISSOURI -47.707
111 MIAMI OH -50.318
112 HAWAII -50.491
113 SOUTH ALABAMA -57.587
114 BAYLOR -61.239
115 KANSAS -66.500
116 UAB -68.844
117 NEVADA -68.969
118 BALL STATE -68.985
119 CONNECTICUT -70.344
120 EAST CAROLINA -70.371
121 GEORGIA SOUTHERN -80.480
122 BOWLING GREEN -86.349
123 RICE -89.060
124 KENT -93.880
125 COASTAL CAROLINA -95.150
126 TEXAS STATE -95.348
127 MASSACHUSETTS -99.234
128 SAN JOSE STATE -100.630
129 UTEP -115.124
130 CHARLOTTE -135.591

Fan Plan Championship Index for Oct. 1

DALLAS, TX The Georgia Bulldogs, fresh off of an impressive 41-0 road victory over Tennessee, strengthened its hold on the No. 1 overall spot in the Week 6 Fan Plan Championship Index. The Bulldogs improved more than 10 percentage points in their chances to make the national championship game, entering Week 6 of the season with a 42.27% chance, the highest percentage of any team thus far this season. The Bulldogs also lead all teams with a 52.59% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Clemson and Michigan remain and Nos. 2 and 3 this week, while a newcomer enters the playoff forecast at the No. 4 spot. Washington State’s upset win over USC vaulted the Cougars into the fourth spot with a 19.18% chance to make the championship game, moving Oklahoma to the No. 5 spot and outside of the playoff race were it to end today.

A number of non-Power 5 teams are also lurking in the FPCI, with Notre Dame holding the highest spot among those clubs at No. 7 with an 11.74% chance to play in the national championship game. Also in the rankings this week from outside the Power 5 conferences are No. 14 Central Florida (1.61%), No. 20 San Diego State (0.29%), and Nos. 24 South Florida and Navy (both 0.10%).

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 6 Penn State (16.63%). No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 8 Alabama (10.08%), No. 9 Ohio State (9.00%), and No. 10 TCU (8.61%).

WK 6 RANK TEAM OVERALL RECORD % TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP % TO WIN CONFERENCE FAN PLAN PRICE
1 Georgia 5-0 42.27% 22.41% $364.58
2 Clemson 5-0 25.49% 22.42% $238.97
3 Michigan 4-0 20.55% 12.41% $192.66
4 Washington State 5-0 19.18% 15.70% $179.81
5 Oklahoma 4-0 18.69% 25.43% $175.22
6 Penn State 5-0 16.63% 21.19% $155.91
7 Notre Dame 4-1 11.74% N/A $88.05
8 Alabama 5-0 10.08% 23.24% $75.60
9 Ohio State 4-1 9.00% 22.56% $90.00
10 TCU 4-0 8.61% 23.46% $86.10
11 Wisconsin 4-0 4.65% 20.74% $58.13
12 Auburn 4-1 3.77% 17.25% $47.13
13 Washington 5-0 1.96% 25.20% $24.50
14 Central Florida 3-0 1.61% 25.06% $20.13
15 Georgia Tech 3-1 1.22% 12.23% $20.00
16 USC 4-1 0.88% 22.93% $20.00
17 Maryland 3-1 0.83% 4.18% $20.00
18 Oklahoma State 4-1 0.73% 19.56% $20.00
19 Michigan State 3-1 0.39% 5.98% $20.00
20 Florida State 1-2 0.29% 7.79% $20.00
20 San Diego State 5-0 0.29% 23.86% $20.00
22 Oregon 4-1 0.24% 12.97 $20.00
23 Virginia Tech 4-1 0.15% 8.09% $20.00
24 Miami (FL) 3-0 0.10% 17.02% $20.00
24 Navy 4-0 0.10% 16.57% $20.00
24 South Florida 5-0 0.10 20.03% $20.00
24 Wake Forest 4-1 0.10% 3.66% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.

FAN PLAN CHAMPIONSHIP INDEX NEWS & NOTES

BULLDOGS CONTINUE TO CLIMB: The Georgia Bulldogs’ 42.27% chance to make the national championship game, combined with their 52.59% chance to make the four-team playoff field, are impressive numbers for such an early point in the college football season. Certainly it is a byproduct of Georgia’s impressive play on the field. However, it can also be seen as a commentary on the rest of Georgia’s schedule, including what looks to be a weaker-than-normal SEC East Division.

The SEC East is one of just three Power 5 divisions that has only one team in the Top 25 of the FPCI. The others are the Big Ten West and Pac-12 South. Georgia’s remaining SEC East foes have a combined 5-7 conference record, which is buoyed dramatically by Florida’s undefeated but not-that-impressive 3-0 SEC mark. The Bulldogs do not have the highest percent chance to win the SEC, however – that still belongs to Alabama at 23.24% — but the Bulldogs’ higher percent chance to make the playoffs and the national championship game is a nod to Alabama’s more difficult road to Atlanta going through the SEC West.

MORE EXCITEMENT LATE NIGHT IN THE PAC-12: #pac12afterdark isn’t just a slick marketing hashtag. When the sun goes down out west, crazy occurrences and back-and-forth scoring shootouts often occur. Already this season we’ve seen Boise State and Washington State go into triple overtime before the Cougars pulled out a 47-44 victory. We also saw Arizona State outlasting and stunning the upstart Oregon Ducks and Utah needing a late fourth quarter fumble recovery to fend off upset-minded Arizona on Friday night in the desert in Week 4.

Week 5 was no exception, as the Washington State Cougars proved they’ve finally developed a defense to go along with their high-powered offense. The Cougars snapped a 15-game losing streak against ranked opponents, the Power 5’s longest such losing streak, when they defeated USC, 30-27. The win vaulted Washington State all the way to the No. 4 position in this week’s FPCI. At 5-0, the Cougars have a 19.18% chance to make the championship game but could have been heading into a hornet’s nest on Saturday when they travel to Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks. However, the Ducks lost their starting quarterback to a broken collar bone, severely limiting Oregon’s chances and giving Washington State’s magical season that much more of a boost as they enter the middle of the regular season schedule.

BIG 12 PLUMMETING: The Big 12 has missed out on the College Football Playoff two of the three years the playoffs have been in existence, and the 2017 season looks to be headed down the same road. Unless an undefeated Oklahoma can make it through the regular season and the conference championship game unscathed, it appears that the conference’s overall strength could keep it on the outside looking in. This week the Sooners are at No. 5 in the FPCI with an 18.69% chance to make the national championship game, still on the outside of the four-team group but definitely within striking distance. The Sooners are also favored in all of their remaining regular season games except for their Bedlam Series matchup in Stillwater against Oklahoma State, which the FPCI has at a pick ’em with each team owning a 50% chance to win the game.

Looking at the FPCI’s overall conference standings, the Big 12 has actually dropped behind the American Athletic Conference, a non-Power 5 league, in the pecking order. The SEC has been No. 1 all season and remains that way, followed by the ACC, which is up from No. 3 last week. The ACC traded spots with the Pac-12, which is No. 3 this week, with the Big Ten coming in at No. 4.

The American Athletic has three teams in this week’s FPCI Top 25 – No. 14 Central Florida and Nos. 24 South Florida and Navy. The Big 12 also has three teams ranked in the FPCI Top 25 with No. 5 Oklahoma, No. 10 TCU, and No. 18 Oklahoma State.

CRASHING THE PARTY: The American Athletic Conference’s No. 5 conference ranking marks the first time this season that a non-Power 5 conference is in the top five of the conference rankings. And while it is still extremely unlikely that a team from the American Athletic Conference or any other non-Power 5 league will break the glass ceiling and make the playoff field, there is an interesting team lurking that is not part of the Power 5, and that is Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish come in at No. 7 in the FPCI this week with a 4-1 overall record and an 11.74% chance to make the national championship game.

As an independent, Notre Dame does not play in a conference and, thus, does not have the same 13th data point that other Power 5 conference champions have. However, the Irish are a national brand and, already at No. 7, there are enough marquee games on their schedule for them to be in the fold if they can win out. Currently the FPCI has Notre Dame favored in all of their remaining games but projects the Irish to have a 9-3 overall record by season’s end. Notre Dame has an 85% chance to beat North Carolina this weekend and then a 62% chance to beat USC the following week. The Irish’s other marquee games come on November 11 at Miami (60% chance to win) and at Stanford in the regular season finale (63% chance to win).

EASIEST ROADS TO CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES: The route to the College Football Playoff begins with the conference championship games, and for some the path to those games is easier to navigate than for other thanks to the schedule maker. When assessing a team’s chances to make the national championship game, one important factor continues to be the remaining schedule and how many quality opponents are left for a team to play. For example, in the SEC East, Georgia appears to have smooth sailing to the SEC Championship Game, especially if it can pick up a win over Florida in the World’s Largest Cocktail Party. The Bulldogs’ remaining schedule includes a number of weaker teams in the division, including upcoming games against Vanderbilt (3-2) and Missouri (1-3) before taking on Florida. According to the FPCI, the only real test left for the Bulldogs in the regular season is a November 11 matchup at Auburn, which Georgia has a 56% chance to win. By that time the Bulldogs may have already wrapped up the SEC East, though, and the matchup would essentially be meaningless as it relates to the conference championship race.

Another team that appears to have smooth sailing to its conference championship game is Clemson. The Tigers have already faced their biggest threats of the regular season in Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech and we’re still in September. Of the seven games remaining on Clemson’s schedule, the lowest percentage to win comes against Georgia Tech on October 28. In that game, Clemson has an 81% chance to win. There are two other games in which the Tigers have just an 82% chance to win – at North Carolina State and against Florida State. All of the remaining games are near or above 90% as it relates to Clemson’s chances for victory.

A similar path is laid out for Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. The Badgers, currently at 4-0, are favored to win all of the remaining games according to the FPCI, with the lowest percent chance to win coming in their home game against Michigan on November 18. In that game the Badgers have a 61% chance to win. The next lowest percentage on Wisconsin’s remaining schedule is 71% at Minnesota and 77% chance to win at Indiana and against Iowa.

The clearest path to the conference championship game in the Pac-12 is Washington. The Huskies have a 64% chance to win at Stanford on November 10, according to the FPCI. That’s the lowest percentage left on the schedule, with their home game against Oregon at a 70% chance to win and their season finale against Washington State coming in at a 74% chance to win.

 

 

100 Things Oklahoma State Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die

A new book by long-time FWAA member Robert Allen.

Few college towns can match the history and loyal fan base of Oklahoma State. With a total of 52 NCAA Championships for the school, Cowboys fans are no strangers to winning and have a lot of history to look back on. In 2017, they have even more to look forward to.

In 100 Things Oklahoma State Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die (Triumph Books, September 2017), sideline voice of the Cowboy Radio Network Robert Allen combines his encyclopedic knowledge and passion for all things sports to produce the ultimate guide to Oklahoma State fandom.  From football and basketball to golf and baseball, this great new reference title covers 10 sports and has something for fans of every era. Highlights include:

A heartfelt foreword from Head Football Coach Mike Gundy

Profiles of fan-favorites Bob Kurland, Eddie Sutton, Rickie Fowler and many more

History of their various stadiums and arenas including Boone Pickens Stadium and Gallagher-Iba Arena

Stories about go-to stops including Chris’ University Spirit, Hideaway Pizza, Eskimo Joe’s and more.

100 Things Oklahoma State Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die provides a thorough, easy to follow guide to becoming the best fan possible. Loaded with trivia, facts and anecdotes about the biggest players and personalities in the school’s history, this great new title covers the entire Oklahoma State experience. No fan’s library is complete without it.

About the Author:

Robert Allen is the sideline voice of the Cowboy Radio Network, hosts “Robert Allen & Friends” on Triple Play Sports Radio and covers Oklahoma State sports for Go Pokes. A graduate of OSU, Allen co-authored More Than a Championship: The 2011 Oklahoma State Cowboys with coach Mike Gundy. He and his wife, Lynne, have two kids (Zach & Katy) and live in Edmond, Oklahoma.

For More Information:

Contact: Stefani Szenda, Triumph Books, 312.676.4224, x324s.szenda@triumphbooks.com..

 

 

Kellner Computer Rankings for week of Oct. 1

The Cody Kellner Points Index (CKPI) gives each team a rating that is reflective of their strength of schedule and the success they had within it.  This is accomplished by using a least squares regression model which recalculates each formula until all ratings stabilize by use of simultaneous equations.  These characteristics are what make the CKPI known as an “advanced ratings system.”

The results from the previous season will be weighted at a decreasing rate as the current season progresses.  Margin of victory is considered in the CKPI ratings and evaluated based on how much a team dominated a game in terms of the number of points they scored in comparison to their opponent.

Individual statistics, upcoming games, injuries, conference affiliation, and location of games are not considered in the CKPI ratings.

Please note:  The CKPI is based on the past and should never be used as a method of prediction.

RANK SCHOOL RATING
1 ALABAMA 167.091
2 CLEMSON 155.529
3 PENN STATE 125.635
4 MICHIGAN 122.996
5 GEORGIA 122.143
6 WASHINGTON 120.061
7 WISCONSIN 108.110
8 OHIO STATE 104.976
9 OKLAHOMA 103.276
10 USC 100.963
11 WASHINGTON STATE 95.909
12 MIAMI FL 89.852
13 SOUTH FLORIDA 86.986
14 FLORIDA 84.866
15 VIRGINIA TECH 84.070
16 TCU 83.666
17 SAN DIEGO STATE 79.233
18 OKLAHOMA STATE 78.000
19 AUBURN 77.113
20 UCF 70.497
21 GEORGIA TECH 70.095
22 LOUISVILLE 69.536
23 UTAH 68.866
24 NOTRE DAME 68.279
25 WAKE FOREST 63.118
26 OREGON 60.030
27 STANFORD 59.934
28 NAVY 59.148
29 MINNESOTA 58.909
30 TEXAS A&M 55.016
31 NC STATE 54.973
32 KENTUCKY 52.846
33 COLORADO 51.755
34 FLORIDA STATE 50.465
35 IOWA 46.747
36 DUKE 46.408
37 HOUSTON 45.096
38 WEST VIRGINIA 44.901
39 VANDERBILT 42.336
40 LSU 40.753
41 NEBRASKA 39.314
42 MICHIGAN STATE 37.944
43 MARYLAND 36.089
44 MISSISSIPPI STATE 36.065
45 TENNESSEE 35.975
46 TROY 35.065
47 UCLA 33.457
48 KANSAS STATE 33.379
49 CALIFORNIA 31.933
50 WESTERN MICHIGAN 31.673
51 TEXAS TECH 30.954
52 SOUTH CAROLINA 30.901
53 SMU 28.258
54 BOISE STATE 26.601
55 COLORADO STATE 24.137
56 INDIANA 24.075
57 UTSA 22.896
58 MEMPHIS 22.771
59 TOLEDO 21.846
60 TEXAS 15.412
61 NORTHWESTERN 13.941
62 OHIO 13.392
63 PURDUE 13.034
64 VIRGINIA 12.545
65 APPALACHIAN STATE 11.342
66 ARKANSAS 9.641
67 MISSISSIPPI 8.728
68 NEW MEXICO 7.097
69 PITTSBURGH 6.657
70 LOUISIANA TECH 5.713
71 WYOMING 4.892
72 BOSTON COLLEGE 4.368
73 ARIZONA STATE 2.318
74 ILLINOIS 1.345
75 UTAH STATE 1.020
76 WESTERN KENTUCKY -0.222
77 MARSHALL -0.437
78 ARMY -0.902
79 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -4.906
80 ARIZONA -5.114
81 AIR FORCE -8.174
82 SYRACUSE -8.178
83 NORTH CAROLINA -9.700
84 TEMPLE -9.815
85 TULANE -11.102
86 UNLV -12.166
87 OLD DOMINION -13.123
88 SOUTHERN MISS -13.551
89 IDAHO -14.202
90 ARKANSAS STATE -15.816
91 EASTERN MICHIGAN -15.919
92 IOWA STATE -16.250
93 FLORIDA INTL -16.853
94 NORTH TEXAS -17.732
95 TULSA -20.215
96 FRESNO STATE -23.186
97 BYU -30.700
98 CINCINNATI -31.348
99 BUFFALO -32.523
100 RUTGERS -33.021
101 HAWAII -33.317
102 ULM -33.734
103 OREGON STATE -33.799
104 NEW MEXICO STATE -33.833
105 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -34.723
106 MIDDLE TENN STATE -36.474
107 AKRON -36.550
108 MIAMI OH -37.731
109 MISSOURI -43.294
110 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -48.446
111 ULL -49.001
112 BALL STATE -52.046
113 SOUTH ALABAMA -54.438
114 KANSAS -54.759
115 GEORGIA STATE -54.773
116 BAYLOR -56.369
117 EAST CAROLINA -59.535
118 CONNECTICUT -64.250
119 GEORGIA SOUTHERN -70.704
120 RICE -77.238
121 KENT -79.295
122 TEXAS STATE -84.609
123 COASTAL CAROLINA -85.132
124 SAN JOSE STATE -86.264
125 NEVADA -87.931
126 UAB -92.378
127 MASSACHUSETTS -94.654
128 BOWLING GREEN -105.074
129 UTEP -111.384
130 CHARLOTTE -120.292