NFF and College Football Hall of Fame On-Campus Salute

Boston College nose tackle Mike Ruth (right), the 1985 Outland Trophy
winner, was presented an award by Matthew Sign, the COO of the
National Football Foundation, during the Eagles’ 35-3 victory over Florida State last Friday night in Chestnut Hill, Mass. Ruth will become the 40th Outland Trophy winner to enter the College Football
Hall of Fame during the NFF Dinner on Dec. 5 in New York.

Fan Plan Championship Index for Oct. 31

DALLAS It was another wild weekend in college football with so many highly-ranked teams facing stiff competition. Week 9 delivered one of the most anticipated matchups of the season and it did not disappoint, as the Ohio State Buckeyes won a thriller in Columbus to take the driver’s seat in the Big Ten and move up to the No. 1 spot in the Fan Plan Championship Index.

The Buckeyes now have a 79.09% chance to make it to the national championship game, according to the FPCI. Ohio State moved up from its No. 5 spot a week ago after its come-from-behind win over previously No. 2 Penn State. The Nittany Lions dropped to No. 7 in this week’s ratings with a 2.68% chance to make the championship game.

Georgia, despite its dominant win over rival Florida in Jacksonville, FL, moved down one spot to make room for the Buckeyes. The No. 2 Bulldogs sport a 42.22% chance to play in the national championship game, followed by fellow SEC member Alabama, which comes in at No. 3 with a 34.78% chance to play in the national championship game.

The remainder of this week’s FPCI Top 10 includes No. 4 Clemson (13.52), No. 5 Oklahoma (13.33%) No. 6 Wisconsin (10.94%). No. 7 Penn State (2.68%), No. 8 Notre Dame (0.97%), No. 9 Miami (0.88%), and No. 10 Virginia Tech (0.73%).

1 Ohio State 7-1 79.09% 23.23% $454.77
2 Georgia 8-0 42.22% 21.16% $242.77
3 Alabama 8-0 34.78% 21.02% $217.38
4 Clemson 7-1 13.52% 19.30% $126.75
5 Oklahoma 7-1 13.33% 20.82% $149.96
6 Wisconsin 8-0 10.94% 22.21% $123.08
7 Penn State 7-1 2.68% 20.98% $50.25
8 Notre Dame 7-1 0.97% N/A $166.22
9 Miami (FL) 7-0 0.88% 20.23% $20.00
10 Virginia Tech 7-1 0.73% 16.29% $20.00
11 Auburn 6-2 0.63% 13.11% $20.00
12 UCF 7-0 0.24% 25.39% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.


ONE DOMINO FALLS: The first big domino in the chase for the playoffs fell last weekend when Ohio State took control of the Big Ten with a 39-35 win over Penn State. Despite Penn State’s No. 2 ranking entering the game, the FPCI proved correct as it predicted a close Ohio State win by the score of 31-26. Ohio State is now clearly in the driver’s seat in the conference, especially in the Big Ten’s East Division. The Buckeyes avoided a potentially-hairy night game at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, as the schedule makers chose for a 3:30 pm kickoff instead of a primetime affair. Ohio State then closes out the regular season with home games against Michigan State, a loser to Northwester a week ago, and Illinois before the season finale at Michigan. According to the FPCI, the Buckeyes should breeze through those final four games, as their lowest projected win percentage is 85% against both Iowa and Michigan. The FPCI gives OSU a greater than 90% chance to win the other home games.

Should Ohio State run the table the rest of the way, there is no way Penn State can catch them. Ohio State’s lone loss came in a non-conference game against Oklahoma. Ohio State’s remaining schedule makes it difficult to see where the Buckeyes might slip up, so Penn State’s best chances to get into the playoffs likely come with a Wisconsin win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. That would force the committee to decide whether to take an undefeated Wisconsin squad that won the conference championship or a one-loss Penn State team that dominated the regular season save for the final two minutes in Columbus. Last year the committee opted not to take the winner of the championship game, which happened to be Penn State. Would they do the same this season under a similar scenario and take the Nittany Lions?

That’s a discussion for another day, because the odds-on favorite now to win the Big Ten is Ohio State. The FPCI projects a 32-19 win for the Buckeyes over Wisconsin in a potential match-up in the conference championship game, leaving a one-loss Ohio State team as a conference champion to add to the mix for the selection committee.

OTHER DOMINOS TO FALL THIS WEEKEND: When looking at the schedule, there are a number of enticing matchups that will have playoff implications, with two conferences in particular – the ACC and the Big 12 — that will begin to sort things out in ultimately determining who will make the case to represent those conferences in the playoff field.

In the ACC, two contenders will see their national championship dreams fade away as the top two teams in the Atlantic Division go against each other and the top two teams in the Coastal Division also face off. These games will essentially serve as divisional championship games, with the winners very likely battling in the ACC Championship Game in December.

The first matchup of the day occurs in Raleigh where the No. 4 Clemson Tigers travel to face the North Carolina State Wolfpack in a matchup for control of the Atlantic Division. The Wolfpack were a FPCI Top 10 team last week before falling at Notre Dame. However, they still have conference championship aspirations, but will have to take down the Tigers in order for those hopes to continue on. The FPCI gives the Tigers a 73% chance to win. Then later Saturday night the Coastal Division is up for grabs when No. 10 Virginia Tech heads to Coral Gables to face No. 9 Miami. Miami remains undefeated on the season, one of just five such teams, but Virginia Tech has been solid throughout, losing only to Clemson. The FPCI believes in the Hokies, despite being on the road, and gives them a 63% chance to win the game, with a projected final score of 25-19.

In the Big 12, the league’s attention turns to Stillwater as Oklahoma travels to Oklahoma State. The No. 5 Sooners got a huge boost with the Ohio State win over Penn State, moving up from No. 9 a week ago. Oklahoma currently has a 13.33% chance to make the national championship game according to the FPCI. If both Oklahoma and Ohio State can run the table and finish the season as one-loss conference champions, it will be difficult not to take the Sooners over the Buckeyes after Oklahoma’s dominant 31-16 win in Columbus earlier in the season. But don’t count the Cowboys out. Oklahoma’s defense has been porous at times, and even though the Cowboys have also had their offensive struggles at certain points in games this year, they just hung 50 at West Virginia. And don’t look now, but the FPCI is actually calling for the Oklahoma State win, giving the Cowboys a 56% chance to win the game and projecting a final score of 42-39. Following TCU’s loss last weekend to fall from the ranks of the undefeated, an Oklahoma loss this weekend would further water down the conference’s quest for a playoff birth.

UNBEATEN NO MORE: The pool of undefeated teams was nearly cut in half last weekend, severely damaging the playoff hopes of a couple of those now one-loss teams and officially eliminating another that never really stood a chance. Let’s get to that one first, as USF suffered a late loss against Houston. That officially put an end to their quest for an undefeated season and officially eliminated them as a playoff contender, though the Bulls were never really on the radar. There is now only one undefeated non-Power 5 team still standing, and that is UCF.

Aside from USF, the other losses, however, really hurt. Penn State was a lock for the playoffs if it could run the table, and for the first 58 minutes of its game at Ohio State, those playoff aspirations seemed to be right on track. But a failure to stop JT Barrett in the fourth quarter, and the Nittany Lions’ own inability to move the football late in the game, dashed any thoughts of an undefeated season. Now they will likely have to count on getting a bid without being a conference champion or even a divisional champion. The way this season is playing out, that is appearing less and less of an option.

And finally in Ames, Kenny Hill made some crucial turnovers and never could get the TCU offense going as the Horned Frogs became the final Big 12 team to lose a game this season. That’s huge, because it markedly lowers the Big 12’s chance of a playoff spot. Oklahoma now seems like the conference’s only chance, as it sports a huge win at Ohio State. Had TCU run the table and won the conference as an undefeated team, there’s no doubt it would have been in the playoffs. However, with so many one-loss teams across the country and the fact that the Big 12 is currently ranked No. 6 among conferences by the FPCI, it’s difficult to imagine a Big 12 team not named Oklahoma getting into the field this season, and the Sooners still have games against Oklahoma State and TCU, then a conference championship game that will likely be a rematch against one of those two foes or Iowa State. That’s a tough task for a conference that knows how it feels to be left out in December.

CAN THE UNBEATENS REMAIN THAT WAY?: This week we enter the schedule of games with five undefeated teams left. As we did above, we can get rid of one of them from the conversation, as the UCF Golden Knights, no matter what they do, will not have enough clout, or an impressive enough resume, to warrant playoff consideration with so many quality one-loss teams that should be in the mix. So that brings us to four teams – Georgia and Alabama from the SEC, Miami, and Wisconsin. Undoubtedly Wisconsin has the easiest trek through the regular season. The Badgers are significant favorites against all remaining regular season foes – Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota. Even if Wisconsin were to lose one of those games, the Badgers would still play in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their true test will come there, where a win to become an undefeated conference champion will certainly get them into the playoff field.

As previously stated, Miami is on alert for their first loss of the season this weekend. The FPCI has Virginia Tech traveling to south Florida and coming away with a win. If that happens, Miami can forget about any potential playoff chances. The Hurricanes also still have a regular-season game against Notre Dame, a game in which the FPCI also projects the Hurricanes to lose. And, if somehow they got past Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, the FPCI still projects the Hurricanes to lose potential ACC Championship Game matchups against either Clemson (by two touchdowns) or North Carolina State (by one point).

The other two undefeated teams reside in the SEC. Both Alabama and Georgia, ranked Nos. 2 and 3 respectively in this week’s FPCI rantings, appear to be on a collision course for the SEC Championship Game. The key is whether both will arrive in Atlanta undefeated. Alabama has a bit tougher road, starting with LSU at home this weekend, then followed by games at Mississippi State, vs Mercer, and at Auburn to end the regular season. The Crimson Tide is favored in every game, with the closest FPCI projection a 26-17 win over Auburn. Georgia also plays at Auburn, where the Bulldogs are projected to win 22-18 in a close contest. Their other remaining regular opponents are against South Carolina and Kentucky and at Georgia Tech to close the regular season, so if they can get past the border rival against Auburn, Georgia’s path to perfection seems pretty clear.

TWO FOR THE SHOW: Should both Alabama and Georgia both advance to the SEC Championship Game undefeated and each have a good showing there (i.e. neither gets blown out), it will be difficult to leave either out of the playoff field. If Alabama wins the SEC Championship Game, Georgia will have had a quality out-of-conference win on the road at Notre Dame, plus wins over Auburn, Mississippi State, and the rest of its SEC foes, and will likely be one of only three Power 5 teams to go undefeated in the regular season (assuming Miami loses along the way and Wisconsin wins out). This year, with the remaining field to choose from, that probably gets it done, unless the Selection Committee simply insists that all participants be conference champions no matter what.

Similar to Georgia, Alabama would likely be in the playoff field if it can run the table in the regular season. Barring a huge loss in the SEC Championship Game, many of the arguments for the Bulldogs can also be made for the Crimson Tide. Alabama beat Florida State when the Seminoles had all of their starters in place, and that game was never really in doubt even when Deondre Francois was healthy and running the FSU offense. The Crimson Tide will also have been at or near the top of every poll and power ranking formula there is throughout the entirety of the regular season.

Under this scenario, the undefeated SEC champion definitely gets in as the No. 1 overall seed. The question then becomes does the losing team that finished with an undefeated regular season record also get into the playoff field? If that loser is Alabama, it’s probably pretty automatic, given the Crimson Tide’s dominance throughout the season and its recent history. If it’s Georgia, you would have to put the Bulldogs in over an 11-1 Notre Dame team, given they gave Notre Dame that one loss. Georgia would go in ahead of the Pac-12 champion, which may well have two losses. Now you’re left with the Big Ten and Big 12 champs. We will assume Ohio State will be the Big Ten champion with just one loss. If the Big 12 champion is a one-loss Oklahoma team, the Bulldogs may well be left out, as arguments could be made that Oklahoma must go in ahead of Ohio State because of the head-to-head win and the overall power of the Big Ten deserves to get its conference champion into the playoff field. However, if the champion of the Big 12 is any team other than a one-loss Oklahoma squad, it will very likely happen that the SEC becomes the first conference to get two teams into the playoff field should both Alabama and Georgia win out and arrive at the SEC Championship Game undefeated.


Kellner Computer Rankings for week of Oct. 29

The Cody Kellner Points Index gives each team a rating that is reflective of their strength of schedule and the success they had within it.  Results from last season are considered in the ratings, but diminish as a factor as the current season progresses.  Margin of victory is also considered in the ratings.

1 ALABAMA 175.417
2 GEORGIA 154.011
3 CLEMSON 144.255
4 PENN STATE 139.522
5 OHIO STATE 135.829
6 WISCONSIN 134.973
7 NOTRE DAME 122.329
8 MIAMI FL 115.383
10 WASHINGTON 107.308
11 UCF 103.199
12 USC 97.717
14 TCU 96.198
15 OKLAHOMA 92.572
17 MICHIGAN 86.177
19 AUBURN 82.268
20 STANFORD 79.126
22 LSU 72.478
24 BOISE STATE 70.233
25 NC STATE 70.055
27 MEMPHIS 62.855
28 TOLEDO 58.738
29 IOWA 56.974
30 IOWA STATE 55.883
31 GEORGIA TECH 53.938
32 WAKE FOREST 53.651
34 ARIZONA 50.779
36 KENTUCKY 49.430
38 TEXAS A&M 44.150
39 NAVY 39.336
40 SMU 36.952
41 HOUSTON 36.347
42 FLORIDA 34.535
43 TROY 32.714
45 LOUISVILLE 32.449
46 OREGON 30.945
49 COLORADO 27.813
50 MARSHALL 27.624
51 TEXAS 27.614
53 UCLA 26.616
54 FRESNO STATE 26.069
55 NEBRASKA 24.556
57 ARMY 22.765
58 SYRACUSE 22.156
60 MARYLAND 19.066
61 CALIFORNIA 16.353
62 WYOMING 15.029
63 VIRGINIA 14.029
64 OHIO 13.882
66 MINNESOTA 10.890
68 UTAH 9.150
69 TEXAS TECH 9.112
71 AIR FORCE 4.343
73 PURDUE 2.856
74 TENNESSEE 2.822
75 UTSA 1.990
77 DUKE 0.764
78 INDIANA -0.795
79 KANSAS STATE -2.451
80 AKRON -3.450
81 FLORIDA INTL -3.747
83 NORTH TEXAS -8.014
85 ARKANSAS -8.404
87 RUTGERS -16.148
89 UTAH STATE -18.555
90 TULANE -21.108
91 TEMPLE -22.353
92 MISSOURI -23.414
93 GEORGIA STATE -25.878
95 UNLV -33.601
96 UAB -34.912
97 SOUTH ALABAMA -37.000
98 ILLINOIS -37.892
99 TULSA -42.038
100 ULL -43.387
101 NEW MEXICO STATE -44.432
102 NEW MEXICO -44.979
104 CONNECTICUT -48.009
105 IDAHO -49.224
106 MIAMI OH -51.143
107 HAWAII -51.428
108 CINCINNATI -53.963
109 OREGON STATE -54.147
111 ULM -55.607
112 NORTH CAROLINA -56.508
113 BUFFALO -56.630
114 EAST CAROLINA -59.359
115 BYU -59.557
117 OLD DOMINION -70.927
118 NEVADA -78.004
119 BAYLOR -86.715
120 BALL STATE -90.445
121 KANSAS -94.185
122 KENT -94.359
123 TEXAS STATE -95.667
124 BOWLING GREEN -99.726
125 RICE -103.475
127 SAN JOSE STATE -119.867
129 CHARLOTTE -129.561
130 UTEP -133.560

New book from the National Football Foundation features Q&As with 12 College Football Hall of Fame coaches

IRVING, Texas – The National Football Foundation (NFF) & College Football Hall of Fame proudly announces the release of their exciting new book, Lessons from Legends: 12 Hall of Fame Coaches on Leadership, Life, and Leaving a Legacy. The book is available now and can be purchased by clicking here.

Lessons from Legends may be the greatest collection of college football knowledge ever assembled. With over 260 years, 2,100 wins, 95 conference titles and 13 National Championships of combined coaching experience, any football fan, coach or player can learn from the wealth of wisdom contained in these pages.

“We are extremely excited about this book, featuring some of the greatest Hall of Fame coaches of all time,” said NFF President & CEO Steve Hatchell. “To coaches, both young and old, this book is a valuable asset on how to mold our next generation of leaders. And to all others, the lessons these coaches imparted on their players can easily translate to everyday life.”

 The book features Q&As with 12 College Football Hall of Fame coaches as they discuss their careers, the lessons they learned and specific features or topics that marked their careers.

In these pages you will learn how:

  • Tom Osborne and Barry Switzer won year after year.
  • Barry Alvarez turned Wisconsin into a perennial winner.
  • R.C. Slocum treated players the right way.
  • Terry Donahue kept his players from distractions in Los Angeles.
  • Steve Spurrier did things as only Steve Spurrier could.

These lessons and more from Mike Bellotti, Marino Casem, Fisher DeBerry, Vince Dooley, Phillip Fulmer and Frank Girardi are featured in the book.

“A good coach doesn’t just coach his players for four years and let them go,” said former Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops in the book’s foreword. “He is a coach and mentor for life. The most important thing a coach does has nothing to do with teaching a kid how to properly tackle. It’s teaching a kid how to be an adult.”

With quotes from College Football Hall of Famers Troy Aikman, Peyton Manning and Danny Wuerffel, and from Washington head coach Chris Petersen, this book has an unmatched combination of football talent.


ABOUT THE BOOK: Football Matters Publishing

ISBN: 978-0-692-94767-8

Praise for the Coaches

Barry Alvarez

“I learned a lot of great lessons from Coach Alvarez, but there are two that are by far the best to me. First, don’t flinch. A lot of people in life, when they’re faced with a moment of adversity, tend to flinch and redefine themselves by trying to overthink the situation. Your first and initial reaction is always the best. The second lesson was to enjoy every win. I don’t care if it’s over the No. 1 team in the nation or an FCS opponent, you need to enjoy every one of them fully.”

Bret Bielema, Arkansas Head Coach and former Wisconsin assistant under Alvarez

 Tom Osborne

 “It was an incredible honor to play for and be coached by Tom Osborne. Coach taught us about teamwork and the value of ‘unity of purpose.’ Each person connected to the program was valued and played an important role in the overall success of Nebraska football. We also learned about the importance of being a great student and how to be an active participant in the community. We learned to respect the game, to honor those who came before us by our work ethic, and by our habits. In short, we participated in a lot more than wins and losses- we learned how to become leaders. I could not be more proud to say that Tom Osborne was my Coach.”

Trev Alberts, Nebraska Omaha Athletics Director, Nebraska LB; Butkus Award, Lambert Trophy Winner; College Football Hall of Famer

Barry Switzer

“Coach Switzer had a way of motivating his players to perform. At a time when most coaches rule with an iron hand or fear, Coach Switzer used positive reinforcement and that made all the difference.”

Keith Jackson, Oklahoma TE, 6X Pro Bowler, Super Bowl Champion, College Football Hall of Famer

Fisher DeBerry

“I was a part of Coach DeBerry’s first freshmen class when he got the head coaching job at the Air Force Academy. From Day One you could tell he was a man of purpose and passion. He was the ideal person for the unique and challenging position as a coach at a service academy.

His win-loss record speaks for itself, but what truly defines Coach DeBerry is that intangible metric that the majority of his players knew and felt – that he positively cared for them. It’s now over 30 years later, and I am still honored to call him ‘coach.’”

Chad Hennings, Air Force DT, Outland Trophy Winner, US Air Force Captain, 3X Super Bowl Champion, College Football Hall of Famer

Phillip Fulmer

“It was an honor and privilege to play for Coach Fulmer. From the first time I met him in December of 1993, when he came to my home, I felt very comfortable talking to him. A significant part of my decision to stay my fourth year was because I wanted to play for Coach Fulmer another year. I learned a lot about football from Coach Fulmer; he had great insight into all phases of the game.

“Most importantly though, I am thankful for his friendship. The times that we are together on trips, having dinner, playing golf, or hunting are times I truly cherish, and I value his friendship; it means a great deal to me.”

Peyton Manning, Tennessee QB; William V. Campbell Trophy®, Maxwell Award Winner; 2X Super Bowl Champion, 5X NFL MVP, NFL All-Time Passing Yards and TD Record Holder, College Football Hall of Famer

R.C. Slocum

“Coach taught me some of the most important virtues as a young man. He taught us to do the right thing all the time and not just some of the time. If you cut corners, more than likely it will catch up to you. He also instilled in me about respecting others. He preached often about the Golden Rule, treat others like you would like to be treated.”

Dat Nguyen, Texas A&M LB; Lombardi, Bednarik, Lambert Trophy Winner; College Football Hall of Famer

Vince Dooley

“The smartest decision I ever made was to play for Coach Dooley at the University of Georgia. His honesty and integrity exhibited during the recruiting process [when I was] in high school when we met has never wavered. He made no promises, but offered the opportunity to play the game. I would not be in the College Football Hall of Fame if not for Vince Dooley. We aspire to live up to standards of those we admire and respect. His legacy lives in the generations of players that proudly say, ‘I played for Coach Vince Dooley.’”

Scott Woerner, Georgia DB, College Football Hall of Famer

Terry Donahue

“I give Coach Donahue a lot of credit for my success. He was such a great example for those he coached. He carried himself with class and integrity and always taught us to keep things in the proper perspective. He was tough on me, but he was always honest and I respected that. I became a better player and person because I played for Coach Donahue.”

Troy Aikman, UCLA QB, Davey O’Brien Award Winner, 3X Super Bowl Champion, Super Bowl MVP, 6X Pro Bowler, College and Pro Football Hall of Famer

Frank Girardi

“Coach Girardi is at the top of my list as far as positive influences in my life. It went well beyond the football field. I always remember the first meeting we had when he became Head Coach and how he stressed loyalty. That was a great message that meant a lot to me. It was more than that, though. He stressed discipline and hard work every day in practice and he rewarded hard work.”

Hon. Thomas I. Vanaskie, Circuit Judge for the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, Lycoming College DB, All-American

Marino Casem

“I went from being a mediocre student to making the Dean’s List twice. I have Coach Casem to thank for that because I really needed someone as demanding as him to grab my attention. Because of his no-nonsense approach, I had to change internally. He made you pay the price if you tried to cut corners. I can honestly say today that I truly love and respect the man because the pressure he constantly put me under brought greatness out of me. I couldn’t have brought that out myself.”

Roynell Young, Alcorn State DB, NFL Pro Bowler

Mike Bellotti

“He had a great feel for people. I was always impressed with the staff that he would hire because you could learn as much from all of the assistants as you could from him. Coach Bellotti was always genuine, authentic and approachable. You could talk about anything with him, and he made the whole environment a good one. He’s a really good guy, not to mention a really good football coach.”

– Chris Petersen, Washington Head Coach and former assistant under Bellotti at Oregon

Steve Spurrier

“Playing for Coach Spurrier changed the trajectory of my life. He had a combination of two seemingly contradictory qualities: he was the most detail-oriented, somewhat perfectionistic coach I’ve ever had, and he had an extremely flexible part of himself that would constantly explore better options and make on-the-spot adjustments that would take weeks for other coaches to consider.”

Danny Wuerffel, Florida QB; Heisman Trophy, William V. Campbell Trophy®, Maxwell Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, Walter Camp Award, Davey O’Brien Award, Sammy Baugh Trophy Winner; College Football Hall of Famer


Scott Bedgood has interviewed Hall of Famers, Emmy and Grammy award winners, Guinness World Record Holders, adventurers, and entrepreneurs in his journalism career. A sportswriter since he was 15-years-old working for the Tyler Morning Telegraph in Tyler, Texas, Bedgood attended the University of Oklahoma where his passion for college football compelled him to pursue a career covering the sport. Scott began covering college football after graduating and moving to Dallas where he lives with his wife Samantha. His other work can be found on his website Bedgood can be reached at

 ABOUT The National Football Foundation & College Hall of Fame

Founded in 1947 with early leadership from General Douglas MacArthur, legendary Army coach Earl “Red” Blaik and immortal journalist Grantland Rice, The National Football Foundation & College Hall of Fame is a non-profit educational organization that runs programs designed to use the power of amateur football in developing scholarship, citizenship and athletic achievement in young people. With 120 chapters and 12,000 members nationwide, NFF programs include, the College Football Hall of Fame in Atlanta, The William V. Campbell Trophy presented by Fidelity Investments, annual scholarships of more than $1.3 million and a series of initiatives to honor the legends of the past and inspire the leaders of the future. NFF corporate partners include Delta Air Lines, Fidelity Investments, Herff Jones, New York Athletic Club, Pasadena Tournament of Roses, PrimeSport, the Sports Business Journal, Under Armour and VICIS. Learn more at

Fan Plan Championship Index for Oct. 25

DALLAS – As college football’s regular season draws closer to an end, every game takes on more magnification, especially as it relates to the teams still left in the chase for the national championship. Losses at the end of the season tend to carry much more magnification than losses early on, so a loss to the wrong opponent this time of year just might put a team on the outside looking in of the playoff race.

The weekend served as Elimination Saturday for two traditional college football powers. After spending most of the season ranked in the FPCI Top 5, the Michigan Wolverines dropped out of the FPCI for the first time this weekend after a loss to Penn State. The USC Trojans also fell out of the FPCI following their loss at Notre Dame.

After a week’s hiatus, the Georgia Bulldogs returned to the No. 1 spot in this week’s, soaring to an incredible 71.45% chance to make the college football national championship game. Georgia is followed by No. 2 Penn State, which all but eliminated Michigan, one of its Big Ten contenders, from the conference and national championship race. Notre Dame comes in at No. 3 with a 34.11% chance to make the championship game, followed by Alabama, the second SEC team in the Top 4, at No. 4 with a 17.87% chance to make the national championship game.

Following the Top 4, the remainder of the FPCI Top 10 includes No. 5 Ohio State (17.73%) No. 6 Miami (7.10%). No. 7 Michigan State (2.80%), No. 8 Auburn (2.71%), No. 9 Oklahoma (2.51%), and No. 10 North Carolina State (2.08%).

1 Georgia 7-0 71.45% 21.65% $410.84
2 Penn State 7-0 37.10% 22.67% $231.88
3 Notre Dame 6-1 34.11% N/A $213.19
4 Alabama 8-0 17.87% 21.98% $167.53
5 Ohio State 6-1 17.73% 22.59% $166.22
6 Miami (FL) 6-0 7.10% 20.94% $79.88
7 Michigan State 6-1 2.80% 13.59% $52.50
8 Auburn 6-2 2.71% 12.96% $50.81
9 Oklahoma 6-1 2.51% 19.21% $47.06
10 North Carolina State 6-1 2.08% 18.86% $39.00
11 TCU 7-0 2.03% 24.06% $38.06
12 Clemson 6-1 1.50% 18.20% $28.13
13 Central Florida 6-0 0.43% 26.23% $20.00
14 Wisconsin 7-0 0.24% 22.66% $20.00
15 Virginia Tech 6-1 0.14% 14.89% $20.00
16 Washington State 7-1 0.10% 12.04% $20.00
17 Stanford 5-2 0.05% 18.41% $20.00
17 Washington 6-1 0.05% 20.25% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.


WITH POTENTIAL PLAYOFF FIELD SHRINKING, WHO’S IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT?: With just 4-5 regular season games still on each team’s slate, the group of teams still with a chance to play in the national championship game is beginning to shrink to a handful of teams. This week the FPCI indicates that there are 26 teams left that have a chance to make the playoff field, but just 18 teams still with a chance to play in the national championship game. The FPCI ratings have begun to really hone in on a group that control their own destiny as it relates to the championship game.

The SEC champion and Big Ten champion both would seem to have a direct path to the playoffs at this point in the season. It would be a huge surprise if both No. 1 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama did not arrive in Atlanta with one loss or fewer. Both are favorites to finish the regular season undefeated, and the winner of that matchup, if it happens, will certainly have earned a spot in the playoff field, with a chance that both teams could advance of both were undefeated heading into that game.

The Big Ten champion seems to be the other lock in the field right now. In that conference, the big matchup is not in the conference championship game, but instead this upcoming weekend when No. 2 Penn State travels to Columbus to face No. 5 Ohio State. If Penn State wins the game, the Nittany Lions would then only have to beat No. 7 Michigan State the following week in order to waltz into the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin, where a win would place them into the playoff field. If Ohio State wins this weekend, that would put the Buckeyes in the driver’s seat to the playoffs and leave Penn State, if it can win out afterwards, as another one-loss team with an argument for being in the field.

The only other teams that would seem to control their own destiny to the playoffs are No. 6 Miami in the ACC and No. 11 TCU in the Big 12. For both teams to be assured of a spot in the field, they would have to continue their winning ways and win their respective conference championship games as undefeated teams. If both are undefeated they would join the SEC champion and the Big Ten champion in the playoff field with little to no argument to be made. If TCU should lose a game down the stretch, however, that could also open the door for No. 3 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish, with an 11-1 final record that would include a win over Miami, would not overtake an undefeated conference champion in TCU, but a 12-1 TCU team would likely not be strong enough to overtake an 11-1 Notre Dame team whose only loss came by one point against Georgia.

What would create total chaos, and what would be a fun argument to have, would be a scenario whereby Alabama wins the battle of unbeatens in the SEC Championship Game, a one-loss Clemson team beats Miami in the ACC Championship Game, Ohio State wins the Big Ten Championship Game with just one loss, a one-loss Oklahoma teams beats TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game, and Notre Dame runs the table. In this scenario, Alabama and Ohio State would be in the playoff field without question. It would then become an all-out PR war in arguing the merits of Georgia (12-1), Clemson (12-1), Penn State (11-1), Notre Dame (11-1), and Oklahoma (12-1) for the final two spots. Good luck sorting that out.

 CANIBALIZATION AT THE TOP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE COMMITTEE’S LIFE EASIER: As much fun as it is sitting back and projecting what might happen, the schedule makers were prescient in their late-season matchups this season. Amazingly, all of the Top 12 teams in the FPCI this week will face at least one other current FPCI Top 12 team during the remainder of the regular season, some of the confusion and ‘what ifs’ will clear themselves up without politicking having to come into the equation. The following is a list of each team’s Top 12 opponents left on their regular season schedules, not counting who they might face if they were to advance to their respective conference’s championship game:

No. 1 Georgia: November 11 at No. 8 Auburn

No. 2 Penn State: October 28 at No. 5 Ohio State, November 4 at No. 7 Michigan State

No. 3 Notre Dame: October 28 vs No. 10 North Carolina State, November 11 at No. 6 Miami

No. 4 Alabama: November 25 at No. 8 Auburn

No. 5 Ohio State: October 28 vs No. 2 Penn State, November 11 vs No. 7 Michigan State

No. 6 Miami: November 11 vs No. 3 Notre Dame

No. 7 Michigan State: November 4 vs No. 2 Penn State, November 11 at No. 5 Ohio State

No. 8 Auburn: November 11 vs No. 1 Georgia, November 25 vs No. 4 Alabama

No. 9 Oklahoma: November 11 vs No. 11 TCU

No. 10 North Carolina State: October 28 at No. 3 Notre Dame, November 4 vs No. 12 Clemson

No. 11 TCU: November 11 at No. 9 Oklahoma

No. 12 Clemson: November 4 at No. 10 North Carolina State

WHY THE BIG DROPS?: The two teams that saw the largest drops this week in their overall percentage to make the national championship game – Alabama and Miami — both happened to win games over the weekend. So why did they see such a large drop in their national championship game hopes?

No. 4 Alabama, which was ranked No. 1 in the FPCI last week, saw the biggest drop in Week 9, from 46.08% in Week 8 to just 17.87% this week. That’s a decrease of more than 28 percentage points, despite the Crimson Tide picking up a huge 45-7 rivalry game win against Tennessee. But what’s holding the Crimson Tide back in the FPCI metrics is their schedule. They’re blowing out every team they play and they’re still favored to win out, but they have only played three teams that currently have winning records. Also, they haven’t yet played any teams currently ranked in the FPCI’s Overall Performance Top 20, and only one team in the Top 25. Florida State’s continued disappointing season is hurting Alabama’s stock and the quality of Alabama’s win against the Seminoles. Plus, Alabama still has a FCS game on its schedule, which never helps matters from a strength of schedule standpoint.

Alabama Results and Projections

Date                    Opponent                        Result                 Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Florida St                          W (24-7)             %

Sat, Sep 09         Fresno St                          W (41-10)           %

Sat, Sep 16         Colorado St                      W (41-23)           %

Sat, Sep 23         at Vanderbilt                   W (59-0)             %

Sat, Sep 30         Mississippi                       W (66-3)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at (22) Texas A&M          W (27-19)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Arkansas                           W (41-9)             %

Sat, Oct 21         Tennessee                        W (45-7)             %

Sat, Nov 04        LSU                                     W (38-7)             99%

Sat, Nov 11        at (25) Mississippi St      W (35-18)           90%

Sat, Nov 18        Mercer                              W (49-0)             99%

Sat, Nov 25        at Auburn                         W (27-15)           82%

The other big drop was the Miami Hurricanes. Ranked No. 4 in Week 8 with a 24.22% chance to make the national championship game, the Hurricanes are No. 6 this week with a 7.10% chance, a drop of 17.12%. Miami is suffering a bit from losing a game after reshuffling its schedule due to Hurricane Irma. The Hurricanes will only play 11 regular season games this season, so as we get closer to the end of the season, Miami winning all of its games (11-0) is equivalent to a similar team going 11-1 as long as the one loss was to a respectable team. But more importantly than that, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame both won by big margins this past weekend. As a result, Virginia Tech is now favored to win the game against Miami (55% chance), according to the FPCI. So with only five games remaining on its schedule, Miami is only favored to win three of them right now, with projected losses to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, thus dropping its chances to make the national championship game.

Miami Results and Projections

Date                    Opponent                        Result                 Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Bethune-Cookman         W (41-13)           %

Sat, Sep 23         (20) Toledo                      W (52-30)           %

Fri, Sep 29          at Duke                             W (31-6)             %

Sat, Oct 07         at Florida St                      W (24-20)           %

Sat, Oct 14         Georgia Tech                   W (25-24)           %

Sat, Oct 21         Syracuse                           W (27-19)           %

Sat, Oct 28         at North Carolina            W (37-17)           94%

Sat, Nov 04        (13) Virginia Tech            L (23-25)             45%

Sat, Nov 11        (6) Notre Dame               L (27-37)             23%

Sat, Nov 18        Virginia                             W (36-15)           95%

Fri, Nov 24         at Pittsburgh                    W (32-20)           82%

WHO COULD WRECK EVERYTHING?: If there’s any team that could wreck the playoff field, it’s the Auburn Tigers. Auburn not only plays Georgia and Alabama in the regular season, but the impact of those games could also have far-reaching implications into programs such as Notre Dame, Miami, Clemson, and more.

Despite two losses on the season, Auburn is ranked No. 8 in the latest FPCI ratings with a 2.71% chance to make the national championship game and a 6.57% chance to be in the playoff field. This is because the Tigers still control their own destiny and have a couple of high-profile games left on their schedule in contests on November 11 against No. 1 Georgia and on November 25 against No. 4 Alabama. Let’s say the Tigers win both of those games. That not only drops both Alabama and Georgia’s playoff chances, but it also puts a blemish on Notre Dame. One of the major reasons for Notre Dame’s lofty No. 3 ranking is due to the fact that it’s only loss was by one point against the team currently ranked No. 1. If Georgia were to lose to Auburn and fall out of the Top 5, that would also affect Notre Dame, and thus, have a domino effect on teams that Notre Dame plays such as Miami and North Carolina State, and teams that those teams play such as Clemson.

So while it’s not likely – the FPCI gives Auburn just a 7.08% chance to win out – it still is a possibility. Three of Auburn’s four remaining games are against FPCI Overall Performance Top 25 opponents (Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama). If Auburn wins out, Alabama and Georgia would still likely only have one loss each and Georgia would be headed to the SEC Championship Game for a likely rematch with Auburn, which would be in via a tie-breaker with Alabama. Another Auburn win over the Dawgs would have a second domino effect on the teams listed above, and also place Auburn squarely in the playoff hunt, as with the quality of wins it would have picked up in the last third of the season, it could be argued that a 2-loss Auburn team is actually better than both Alabama and Georgia, along with many of the other playoff contenders. So if Auburn were to win out, that would remove Georgia and likely Notre Dame from the playoff field, make Alabama a questionable candidate, and give Clemson, as long as it beats Miami to win the ACC, a playoff push due to its early-season win over Auburn.

Auburn Results and Projections

Date                    Opponent                        Result                 Odds

Sat, Sep 02         Georgia Southern           W (41-7)             %

Sat, Sep 09         at (8) Clemson                 L (6-14)               %

Sat, Sep 16         Mercer                              W (24-10)           %

Sat, Sep 23         at Missouri                       W (51-14)           %

Sat, Sep 30         (25) Mississippi St           W (49-10)           %

Sat, Oct 07         Mississippi                       W (44-23)           %

Sat, Oct 14         at LSU                                L (23-27)             %

Sat, Oct 21         at Arkansas                      W (52-20)           %

Sat, Nov 04        at (22) Texas A&M          W (30-19)           80%

Sat, Nov 11        (2) Georgia                       L (17-20)             42%

Sat, Nov 18        Louisiana-Monroe          W (54-12)           99%

Sat, Nov 25        (1) Alabama                     L (15-27)             18%

MORE LOSSES TO COME: If looking at the upcoming schedules for the top teams doesn’t convince you that there is plenty of movement still to be made in the FPCI down the stretch, one look at the FPCI’s percent to win out metric will give you even more proof. Of the major contenders, Alabama (55.04%) is the only team that has a greater than 50% chance of winning all of its remaining regular season games. Not surprisingly, Wisconsin is next with a 40.45% chance to win out, followed by Ohio State (37.07%), Clemson (35.93%), Notre Dame (33.27%), Washington (33.26%), Georgia (28.86%), and Penn State (26.61%).

SORRY GOLDEN KNIGHTS: The UCF Golden Knights are many people’s pick to be the one Group of Five school to finish the season undefeated. UCF actually leads all teams with a 62.34% to win all of its remaining regular season games according to this week’s FPCI. But going undefeated will still likely not be enough to sway the playoff committee, especially when UCF’s one major Power Five test was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. The Golden Knights were actually looking at having just a 10-game season, but AD Danny White was able to schedule FCS opponent Austin Peay for a game this weekend. That game provides UCF with an 11th contest for its resume, but it also further dilutes the Golden Knights’ strength of schedule. Missing out on the game against Georgia Tech was a crushing blow to the Golden Knights’ chances of being in the playoff field, and it stings a bit more after UCF handled Navy’s triple option offense a week ago, the same triple option offense that Georgia Tech would have brought to the field, leaving the Golden Knights to wonder ‘what if.’

Kellner Computer Rankings for week of Oct. 22 1

The Cody Kellner Points Index gives each team a rating that is reflective of their strength of schedule and the success they had within it.  Results from last season are considered in the ratings, but diminish as a factor as the current season progresses.  Margin of victory is also considered in the ratings.

1 ALABAMA 183.228
2 PENN STATE 155.413
3 GEORGIA 138.967
4 CLEMSON 135.887
5 WISCONSIN 130.692
6 OHIO STATE 126.933
7 TCU 117.557
8 MIAMI FL 115.722
9 NOTRE DAME 107.929
10 WASHINGTON 103.442
11 VIRGINIA TECH 103.006
12 UCF 100.108
15 USC 88.710
17 NC STATE 86.388
19 OKLAHOMA 84.615
20 MICHIGAN 83.378
21 AUBURN 82.411
22 STANFORD 78.050
23 LSU 73.765
25 GEORGIA TECH 62.941
26 BOISE STATE 61.995
27 TEXAS A&M 59.645
29 MEMPHIS 55.737
30 TOLEDO 54.257
31 FLORIDA 49.436
32 LOUISVILLE 47.609
34 WAKE FOREST 43.476
35 MARSHALL 43.398
36 FRESNO STATE 42.441
38 IOWA 41.491
40 KENTUCKY 39.327
42 NAVY 37.624
43 IOWA STATE 36.391
44 ARIZONA 35.174
47 UCLA 32.806
48 CALIFORNIA 28.326
49 SMU 27.923
50 TROY 27.160
52 VIRGINIA 26.467
54 MINNESOTA 24.259
55 ARMY 23.503
56 UTAH 23.366
57 SYRACUSE 22.908
58 HOUSTON 22.514
61 COLORADO 19.363
62 NEBRASKA 16.956
65 OREGON 15.558
66 OHIO 14.351
67 TEXAS TECH 13.881
68 TENNESSEE 13.024
69 TEXAS 12.846
70 VANDERBILT 12.047
71 DUKE 10.914
72 INDIANA 10.683
73 PURDUE 10.159
76 MARYLAND 6.344
77 UTSA -3.302
78 WYOMING -3.414
80 PITTSBURGH -5.216
81 KANSAS STATE -6.668
82 AIR FORCE -9.324
83 AKRON -10.070
84 RUTGERS -11.657
85 UTAH STATE -11.812
86 TULANE -13.629
87 ARKANSAS -15.879
88 FLORIDA INTL -16.365
89 NORTH TEXAS -20.204
91 TEMPLE -22.506
92 SOUTH ALABAMA -23.907
93 NEW MEXICO -27.751
95 TULSA -32.975
96 CONNECTICUT -33.145
98 ILLINOIS -34.279
99 MISSOURI -38.065
100 GEORGIA STATE -38.093
102 ULL -42.542
103 HAWAII -42.783
104 ULM -45.846
105 UNLV -48.562
106 OREGON STATE -49.602
107 NORTH CAROLINA -49.624
108 MIAMI OH -50.606
109 BUFFALO -51.836
110 CINCINNATI -52.388
112 UAB -57.430
113 EAST CAROLINA -57.900
114 IDAHO -58.281
115 OLD DOMINION -60.144
116 BYU -67.663
117 BAYLOR -74.647
118 NEVADA -76.487
119 BALL STATE -85.226
121 KANSAS -89.750
122 KENT -92.387
123 RICE -99.782
124 BOWLING GREEN -100.872
126 TEXAS STATE -111.013
127 SAN JOSE STATE -111.608
129 UTEP -124.356
130 CHARLOTTE -128.978

Fan Plan Championship Index for week of Oct. 16 2

DALLAS — For the second week in a row turmoil atop college football has sent playoff contenders reeling. As a result, the Fan Plan Championship Index was once again reshuffled, leaving a familiar team back at the top of the standings in the race to determine which teams will be playing for the national championship this season.

A week after two of the FPCI’s Top 5 teams were beaten, this past weekend saw four of the Top 10 FPCI teams go down, including the top two teams on a wild Friday night of action. Thanks to Clemson’s loss at Syracuse and Washington State’s loss at Cal, the Alabama Crimson Tide have vaulted all the way back to the No. 1 overall spot from last week’s No. 8 position. The Crimson Tide now have a 46.08% chance to make the national championship game, a jump of more than 38 percentage points and the largest jump of any team. Alabama is followed by SEC rival Georgia, which moved up from No. 4 to No. 2. Georgia’s 44.15% chance to make the national championship game is up more than 23 percentage points from a week ago.

No. 3 Penn State (33.00%) and No. 4 Miami (24.22%) round out the Top 4 in the projected playoff field. Ohio State (19.59%), which is chasing Penn State for Big Ten supremacy, comes in just outside of the Top 4 at No. 5 overall.

This week’s Top 10 is rounded out by No. 6 Notre Dame (19.14%). No. 7 North Carolina State (4.64%), No. 8 Michigan State (3.80%), No. 9 Clemson (1.73%), and No. 10 USC (1.13%).

1 Alabama 7-0 46.08% 22.94% $264.96
2 Georgia 7-0 44.15% 22.46% $253.86
3 Penn State 6-0 33.00% 21.54% $206.25
4 Miami (FL) 5-0 24.22% 20.86% $151.38
5 Ohio State 6-1 19.59% 22.74% $146.93
6 Notre Dame 5-1 19.14% N/A $143.55
7 North Carolina State 6-1 4.64% 19.03% $58.00
8 Michigan State 5-0 7.73% 12.76% $47.50
9 Clemson 6-1 3.08% 17.48% $21.63
10 USC 6-1 2.25% 21.35% $20.00
11 Washington State 6-1 1.17% 10.75% $20.00
12 TCU 6-0 0.88% 24.94% $20.00
13 Oklahoma 5-1 0.73% 18.20% $20.00
14 Michigan 5-1 0.54% 6.15% $20.00
14 Wisconsin 6-0 0.39% 21.61% $20.00
16 Auburn 5-2 0.39% 11.23% $20.00
16 South Carolina 5-2 0.34% 7.80% $20.00
18 Mississippi State 4-2 0.29% 5.21% $20.00
18 Oklahoma State 5-1 0.24% 20.34% $20.00
18 Washington 6-1 0.10% 20.84% $20.00

Compiled weekly during the season, the FPCI is a proprietary analytical look at the current state of the chase for college football’s national championship. As opposed to traditional polls and rankings which purport to rank the best teams at a particular point in the season, the FPCI aims to rate college football teams by their real-time percent chance to make the national championship game — a dynamic metric that no other poll or ranking system measures.

The FPCI also includes the cost of a Fan Plan for each team. A Fan Plan is a one-of-a-kind indemnity product fans can purchase for their favorite team. If that team goes to the national championship game, Fan Plan pays for the fan’s game tickets and travel costs, up to the total coverage value of the Fan Plan. Each Fan Plan has a $1,000 coverage value and fans can buy additional coverage in $1,000 increments, up to $10,000 in total coverage. Fan Plan costs are dynamic and change based on each team’s real-time odds of making the championship game. The FPCI and Fan Plan pricing are based on season simulations that take into account a team’s wins and losses, opponents results, suspensions, weather, SOS, and other data points and projections.


WELCOME BACK TO THE TOP, BUT WHEN WILL THE TIDE BE TESTED?: After sitting atop the Fan Plan Championship Index for three weeks and then giving way to other contenders for a month, the Alabama Crimson Tide have returned to the No. 1 spot atop the FPCI ratings. This week’s FPCI has Alabama with a 46.08% chance to play in the national championship game, a huge jump of more than 38 percentage points from a week ago when the Tide were at No. 8 in the FPCI rankings.

There’s no doubt that Alabama has been the most steady of the dominant teams in the country this season. The average score of an Alabama game this season has been 43-10. Alabama’s closest game was a 27-19 contest against Texas A&M a couple weeks ago, but the Tide were up 24-3 early in the third quarter in College Station. Was that final result more a matter of Alabama losing focus, or was it a chink in the armor? That’s still to be determined, but last weekend the Crimson Tide shut down any thoughts of an upset when Damian Williams took the first play of the game for a 75-yard touchdown en route to a 41-9 win over Arkansas.

According to the FPCI, Alabama is heavily favored to win its remaining regular season games, most of which the Tide have a greater than 90% chance to win. The lowest remaining percentage is at Auburn in the regular season finale, but even then Alabama currently has an 81% chance to win that game. If the season unfolds the way it’s currently going, this could be a historically easy path to the SEC championship, a conference that has prided itself with having huge slates of top teams through the recent decades. Currently Alabama has only played one game against an FPCI-ranked team at the time of the game – that was Week 1 against then- No. 4 Florida State. Alabama’s FPCI average opponent rank is 67.3 and Alabama’s opponents’ combined record is 24-20. Looking forward it doesn’t get much better, as the only remaining team on the Tide’s schedule ranked in the FPCI is Auburn at No. 16. Alabama, which is ranked No. 2 in this week’s FPCI power rankings, would also be favored in a potential SEC Championship Game match-up against No. 2 Georgia, with the FPCI simulations projecting a 25-14 Alabama win in that matchup. But all of that is on paper, and as the past two weekends in college football have proven, you really don’t know what to expect until a team finds itself in the fire. But for Alabama, it seems like that may not come before December, at the earliest.

CHAOS ABOUNDS, PART 2: Two weekends ago it was two FPCI Top 5 teams that went down and caused a huge shake-up in the FPCI ratings. But that was nothing compared to this past weekend when four FPCI Top 10 teams lost, including the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams in the land. When all of the dust cleared during what was supposed to be a ho-hum weekend on the schedule, the ruins that were left made it clear that we’re no closer to defining the playoff field than we were when we started the season.


Clemson Tigers: Friday night’s falterings by No. 1 Clemson and No. 2 Washington State sent shockwaves through college football. Clemson had finally made its way to the No. 1 overall spot in the FPCI with a projected 50.24% chance to make the national championship game. It also had the best resume of any of the contenders with wins over three teams that were highly ranked when they faced the Tigers in Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech, all three of which the Tigers summarily dismissed. But Friday night Clemson fell to a gutsy, if only average, Syracuse team and in the process lost its quarterback to a concussion. That marked the second consecutive questionable final score, as the week before some concern centered around the Clemson offense in a pedestrian 28-14 win over Wake Forest. This isn’t the same Clemson team as last season and the Tigers’ ability to lose focus – both by the players and the play callers (see Dabo Swinney’s refusal to just pound the ball down Syracuse’s throat) – is a little concerning. However, Clemson still appears to be the class of the conference and it might take more than one loss to keep them away from the playoff field.

Washington State: Yes, the Mike Leach offense is fun to watch when it’s clicking on all cylinders. And yes, it appears Washington State has a defense that’s better than anything Pullman has seen in the Mike Leach era. But yes, it’s still the same Mike Leach system that’s too prone to lay too many eggs at crucial times to trust that the Cougars are ready to run the table and claim the Pac-12 title with just one loss. The FPCI has Washington State at No. 11 overall with a 0.89% chance to play in the national championship game, and that’s probably much more realistic than last week’s No. 2 overall ranking following its huge victory over USC. The FPCI is projecting two more losses this regular season, one against Stanford and one at Washington. It’s also possible that the wheels could come off entirely, as Washington State only has a 54% chance to beat Arizona in Tucson and a 55% chance to win at Utah, both of which could be considered tossups at the moment.

Washington: What an implosion in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Following Washington State’s Friday night loss, the Washington Huskies had its chance to take control of the Pac-12 North. But as bad as Washington State looked on Friday, Washington wasn’t any better on Saturday in its 13-7 loss at Arizona State. Washington, last season’s playoff representative from the Pac-12, is still winless in Tempe since 2001. Arizona State previously allowed 30 or more points in 11 straight games and Washington entered the game averaging 43 points per game, but failed to find the endzone until the fourth quarter, going nearly 50 minutes without scoring. It still may be Washington or bust as far as the Pac-12’s playoff chances go, especially if USC falls to Notre Dame this week. The FPCI, which has Washington at No. 18 this week and a 0.05% chance to play in the national championship game, has Washington favored to win all of its remaining regular season games, which includes a road trip to Stanford. In that game the Huskies have a 55% chance to win with a projected score of 25-23. That would likely lead to a Pac-12 Championship Game rematch against USC, which the FPCI currently has as a 26-19 Washington win.

Auburn: The fourth FPCI Top 10 team to fall was Auburn, which was stunned by LSU after going on top 20-0 and seemingly headed to another route of an SEC West foe. In its three previous games, Auburn had beaten Missouri 51-14, Mississippi State 49-10, and Ole Miss 44-23, so the 20-0 start appeared to be just more of the same. But the home-standing Tigers turned the defensive tables on Auburn, which finished with just 65 total yards in the second half. They may have also provided the blueprint for stopping Gus Malzahn’s offense, a feat only Clemson had been able to approach this season. With both Georgia and Alabama left on the schedule, along with a tricky game at Texas A&M, this playoff dark horse a week ago now can seemingly only be a spoiler. But don’t be surprised if Auburn does take down one of the two SEC giants. The Alabama game is in Auburn this season, just a few years removed from the Kick Six in Jordan-Hare. This season of chaos is going a little too smoothly atop the SEC – so smooth that it now appears the SEC could get two teams into the playoffs if the right dominos fall –which is why an Auburn upset of Georgia or Alabama seems like a heck of a pick as the regular season winds to a close.

BEST CHANCE FOR A TWO-LOSS TEAM: While it’s still a longshot that a two-loss team will advance into a four-team playoff field, the odds of that happening continue to get shorter the more the top teams continue to lose. So does a two-loss team really have a shot at making the playoffs? Possibly, and if so, Stanford seems like the odds on favor. First and foremost, the Cardinal would have to win the Pac-12 Conference. As much of a stretch as it seems when discussing a two-loss team in the playoffs, it’s pretty much a lock that any two-loss team would have to be a conference champion to even be considered, and at this time Stanford seems like the two-loss team that’s in the best position to accomplish that feat.

The Cardinal began the 2017 campaign on a sour note. After beating Rice in the season opener, Stanford fell to USC 42-24 and to San Diego State 20-17 before righting the ship. One early-season loss can be overcome, especially when it’s to a team the caliber of USC. But that slip-up against the Aztecs was a dagger for a Stanford team that knows a lot about early season losses. In 2015, Stanford lost out of the gates to Northwestern, only to reel off eight straight wins to climb up to No. 7 in the rankings. But a 38-36 home loss to Oregon ended any hopes of the Cardinal advancing to the playoffs. Instead, Stanford trounced No. 5 Iowa in the Rose Bowl, 45-16. Stanford also dropped two early-season games in 2012 against Washington and Notre Dame before rallying to finish in the Top 10. In both seasons early season setbacks seemed too much to overcome, despite those Stanford teams finishing the year as good as anyone in the country.

That could happen again this year as the Cardinal are now surging after the two early-season losses. Stanford is 5-2 and winners of four in a row. The FPCI gives Stanford a 0.64% chance to make the playoff field. Stanford’s schedule down the stretch is tough, including games against No. 11 Washington State, No. 18 Washington, and No. 6 Notre Dame. The FPCI projects Stanford to still lose two of its remaining games, but by a combined three points. Essentially the game against Washington and the game against Notre Dame, both home games, are both toss-ups. If Stanford can traverse that regular season slate successfully and then win the Pac-12 Championship Game, it would mean 10 straight wins for the Cardinal to close out the season and a conference championship. With the Pac-12 currently listed as the second strongest conference in America, it’s conceivable to believe that a 10-2 Stanford team that has won 10 straight games could get in ahead of an 11-1 team from the Big 12, especially if that team is TCU and it were to go into the Big 12 Championship Game undefeated but lose to a 2-loss or 3-loss team.

WHAT ABOUT THE AMERICAN ATHLETIC?: Not only do all of the losses by supposed playoff contenders make for exciting weekends of action, but they also help keep alive the hopes of the undefeated non-Power 5 teams still lurking. Specifically, for UCF and USF of the American Athletic Conference, with every loss by a Power 5 heavyweight comes a bigger smile and more hope.

But the FPCI doesn’t exactly see it that way. The UCF Golden Knights and USF Bulls are both ranked No. 21 in the most recent Fan Plan Championship Index and both teams even have a small shot at making the playoff field, according to the FPCI. UCF enters Week 8 with a 25.67% chance to win the conference and a 3.95% chance to make the playoff field. USF has a 21.62% chance to make win the conference and a 0.44% chance to make the playoff field. But when it comes to the national championship game, that’s when both teams fall out of the race. In the thousands of simulations run by the FPCI to determine the Week 8 ratings and projections, neither UCF or USF won any of the semifinal games when they were actually projected to reach the playoff field, giving both a 0% chance to make the national championship game in Atlanta.

NFF’s Hatchell honored; Texas-OU luncheon hits 50


A reception was held this week in Dallas honoring Steve Hatchell, National Football Foundation President and CEO. Hatchell is being inducted into the Colorado University Athletic Hall of Fame on Nov. 9 . Hatchell was involved in sports administration at Colorado, his Alma Mater. Hatchell spoke to the crowd. He was honored with a cake. (Photos by Melissa Macatee)

This was a poster from the Annual Luncheon that the Cotton Bowl sponsored before the most recent Red River Showdown between Oklahoma and Texas. The luncheon has been held in Dallas for a half century when writers, broadcasters, sponsor and team officials gather the day before the game at the Cotton Bowl Stadium.




Kellner Computer Rankings for week of Oct. 15

The Cody Kellner Points Index gives each team a rating that is reflective of their strength of schedule and the success they had within it.  Results from last season are considered in the ratings, but diminish as a factor as the current season progresses.  Margin of victory is also considered in the ratings.

1 ALABAMA 175.553
2 PENN STATE 140.041
3 GEORGIA 136.796
4 CLEMSON 133.506
5 OHIO STATE 126.237
6 WISCONSIN 121.988
7 USC 112.375
8 MIAMI FL 109.970
9 TCU 109.667
10 WASHINGTON 105.421
11 MICHIGAN 99.088
14 UCF 85.635
16 NC STATE 84.353
17 NOTRE DAME 84.191
18 STANFORD 82.938
20 OKLAHOMA 80.419
22 AUBURN 71.178
24 LSU 63.976
25 TEXAS A&M 59.958
26 IOWA 59.012
28 KENTUCKY 56.004
29 BOISE STATE 55.820
30 WAKE FOREST 55.251
31 FLORIDA 50.620
33 GEORGIA TECH 50.101
34 NAVY 49.506
36 CALIFORNIA 45.151
37 TOLEDO 44.555
38 MEMPHIS 44.379
39 UTAH 42.693
40 VIRGINIA 41.758
42 LOUISVILLE 37.512
43 HOUSTON 35.369
44 COLORADO 35.359
47 OREGON 33.909
48 TEXAS TECH 29.586
49 SYRACUSE 27.803
50 MARSHALL 27.741
52 INDIANA 24.789
53 ARIZONA 24.510
55 IOWA STATE 21.838
56 DUKE 21.522
57 TEXAS 21.373
58 PURDUE 21.313
59 SMU 20.954
61 MINNESOTA 19.655
62 UCLA 18.628
63 NEBRASKA 17.904
64 TENNESSEE 17.769
65 FRESNO STATE 16.350
66 TROY 16.294
67 ARMY 15.195
70 VANDERBILT 12.962
71 MARYLAND 12.782
72 WYOMING 9.746
75 OHIO 3.290
79 NORTH TEXAS -4.047
80 ARKANSAS -7.135
81 TULANE -9.895
82 AIR FORCE -11.192
83 UTSA -11.794
85 TEMPLE -15.622
86 TULSA -16.042
87 FLORIDA INTL -17.106
88 PITTSBURGH -17.264
89 AKRON -17.986
91 NEW MEXICO -19.741
92 UTAH STATE -20.375
93 ULL -21.922
94 RUTGERS -21.984
95 ILLINOIS -26.213
96 GEORGIA STATE -28.354
98 UNLV -32.960
99 ULM -33.317
100 SOUTH ALABAMA -33.508
102 IDAHO -38.783
104 BUFFALO -41.237
105 NORTH CAROLINA -41.436
106 HAWAII -42.173
108 UAB -47.542
109 OREGON STATE -47.747
110 CINCINNATI -47.901
111 CONNECTICUT -49.979
112 MISSOURI -53.879
113 BYU -54.475
114 OLD DOMINION -57.357
115 MIAMI OH -63.034
116 BALL STATE -68.759
117 BAYLOR -70.470
118 NEVADA -73.131
119 EAST CAROLINA -77.224
120 KENT -81.784
121 KANSAS -84.282
122 RICE -89.802
124 BOWLING GREEN -94.270
125 MASSACHUSETTS -102.136
127 TEXAS STATE -106.724
128 SAN JOSE STATE -109.708
129 UTEP -126.250
130 CHARLOTTE -140.839